Sheffield United vs Derby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Bramall Lane
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.78
Draw
4.02
Away Win
4.31
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Sheffield United
Derby
17'
🟨 Ryan Nyambe
37'
⚽ Bobby Clark
50'
🟨 Dion Sanderson
Liam Kitching 🟨
64'
66'
🟥 Dion Sanderson
Sydie Peck 🟨
75'
Patrick Bamford (Romelle Donovan) ⚽
79'
90+4'
🟨 Bobby Clark
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
25
Total Shots
11
10
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
10
Starting Lineups
Sheffield United (4-2-3-1)
M. Cooper
H. Choudhury
J. Tanganga
L. Kitching
H. Burrows
K. Phillips
O. Arblaster
T. Chong
T. Cannon
B. Brereton
P. Bamford
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Widell Zetterström
J. Ward
R. Nyambe
D. Sanderson
R. Hedges
B. Clark
D. Ozoh
R. Brewster
S. Szmodics
H. Meister
C. Morris
Player Ratings ?
Sheffield United
P. BamfordF8.0
R. DonovanM7.3
M. CooperG7.1
Derby
J. Widell ZetterströmG8.1
B. ClarkM7.9
S. SzmodicsM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sheffield United
Sheffield United rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sheffield United a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sheffield United stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sheffield United slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sheffield United slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sheffield United stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sheffield United have secured two victories in their last five home outings, while Derby have managed just a single win across their last five away fixtures. The Blades have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have kept a clean sheet only twice during that same span. Sheffield United face two confirmed absences ahead of this encounter, whereas Derby must contend with nine confirmed outsidess alongside two players listed as doubtful. Sheffield United rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Sheffield United won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 2 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Derby's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Sheffield United's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points, while Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sheffield United a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Derby losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Sheffield United
Sheffield United's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sheffield United win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sheffield United win
Latest market chance 53.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
50.4% → 53.2%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 24.6%
−1.3 pts
Derby win
Latest market chance 22.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.7% → 22.2%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sheffield United
Draw
Derby
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sheffield UnitedDerby
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
23rd
11
Games Played
11
1.36
Points/Game
0.55
1.36
Goals/Game
0.82
1.27
Conceded/Game
1.82
11.5
Shots/Game
11.9
4.1
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Sheffield United at home (7 matches) vs Derby away (7 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
0.71
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.14
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sheffield United
Home form
D
W
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Derby
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sheffield United Wins
3
Draws
0
Derby Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Derby1 – 2Sheffield United
Sheffield United1 – 3Derby
Derby0 – 1Sheffield United
Sheffield United1 – 0Derby
Derby2 – 0Sheffield United
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sheffield Unitedvs
Derby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 53.7%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.8%→Latest 55.3%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?