QPR vs Derby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Loftus Road
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
4.14
Away Win
5.05
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
QPR
Derby
Alfie Lloyd (Boy Kemper) ⚽
18'
Nicolas Madsen ⚽ (P)
22'
24'
🟨 D. Ozoh
28'
🟨 John Eustace
44'
🟨 Sammie Szmodics
Harvey Vale ⚽
45'
56'
🟨 Henrik Wendel Meister
Harvey Vale 🟨
57'
Glen Kamara 🟨
60'
Paul Smyth (Nicolas Madsen) ⚽
68'
90+10'
⚽ Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
9
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Goal
6
1
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
QPR (4-2-3-1)
P. Charles
K. Adamson
J. Dunne
R. Edwards
B. Kemper
N. Madsen
G. Kamara
P. Smyth
H. Vale
A. Lloyd
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Vickers
J. Ward
S. Langås
D. Sanderson
R. Hedges
D. Ozoh
A. Mowatt
M. Fuseini
B. Clark
S. Szmodics
C. Morris
Player Ratings ?
QPR
A. LloydM7.9
P. SmythM7.6
N. MadsenM7.5
Derby
L. SalvesenF7.8
H. MeisterF6.7
C. MorrisF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. QPR edge recent form, attack and defence, Derby edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
QPR stronger
HomeAway
Attack
QPR stronger
HomeAway
Defence
QPR stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Derby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have secured two victories and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while QPR have managed just one win and two draws in their corresponding home outings during the same recent spell. QPR have found the net in three of their last five matches at home, though they have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in that same period. The Royals face two confirmed absences and one doubtful player ahead of the match, whereas Derby will be without six squad members but have no doubts remaining over their available selection. QPR rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Derby rate stronger on head-to-head. Derby won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 25 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to QPR's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, QPR's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points, while Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Derby losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards QPR
QPR's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a QPR win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
QPR win
Latest market chance 57.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
53.3% → 57.0%
+3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.0% → 23.9%
−1.1 pts
Derby win
Latest market chance 19.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.7% → 19.2%
−2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
QPR
Draw
Derby
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
QPRDerby
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
23rd
9
Games Played
9
1.56
Points/Game
0.67
1.22
Goals/Game
0.89
0.89
Conceded/Game
1.67
15.1
Shots/Game
11.9
4.8
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
QPR at home (8 matches) vs Derby away (7 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
0.71
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
0.88
Conceded/Game
2.14
50%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
QPR
Home form
L
D
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Derby
Away form
W
L
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
QPR Wins
2
Draws
0
Derby Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
QPR2 – 3Derby
Derby1 – 0QPR
QPR4 – 0Derby
Derby2 – 0QPR
QPR1 – 0Derby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
QPRvs
Derby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.9%→Latest 52.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 52.7%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of QPR's 10 matches and 1 of Derby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?