Preston vs Millwall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Deepdale Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.95
Draw
3.54
Away Win
2.39
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Preston
Millwall
Leo Leroy 🟨
15'
19'
🟨 Jenson Metcalfe
71'
🟨 Derek Mazou Sacko
79'
⚽ Camiel Neghli (Luke Cundle)
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
12
Total Shots
11
1
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Preston (3-4-1-2)
D. Iversen
O. Offiah
J. Storey
A. Hughes
H. Clarke
L. Leroy
J. Thompson
A. Vukčević
A. Devine
J. Erabi
C. Lang
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
F. Marschall
R. Leonard
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
Jenson Metcalfe
T. Arconte
C. Neghli
K. Lisbie
L. Dykes
Player Ratings ?
Preston
J. StoreyD7.2
D. BurgzorgF6.8
H. ClarkeM6.7
Millwall
C. NeghliM8.2
C. TaylorD7.1
Jenson MetcalfeM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Millwall
Millwall rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Millwall a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Millwall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Millwall arrive at this Championship fixture with an away record of just one win from their last five outings, while Preston have endured a difficult run at home with four defeats in that same span. At this venue, Preston have found the net in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those recent home fixtures. Preston face some selection questions with two players unavailable and one doubtful, whereas Millwall have seven confirmed absences ahead of the match. Millwall rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Millwall won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 28 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Preston's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Preston's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Millwall's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Millwall a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Preston losing run
3
Preston points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Millwall
Millwall's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Preston win
Latest market chance 32.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.1% → 32.7%
−3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 27.7%
−0.7 pts
Millwall win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.6% → 39.6%
+4.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Preston
Draw
Millwall
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PrestonMillwall
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
12th
8
Games Played
8
0.50
Points/Game
1.38
1.00
Goals/Game
1.88
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.88
11.7
Shots/Game
14.0
2.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Preston at home (8 matches) vs Millwall away (8 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
0.88
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.25
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Preston
Home form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Millwall
Away form
D
W
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Preston Wins
0
Draws
3
Millwall Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Preston0 – 2Millwall
Millwall1 – 1Preston
Preston1 – 1Millwall
Millwall3 – 1Preston
Millwall1 – 1Preston
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Prestonvs
Millwall
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 51.6%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.4%→Latest 56.1%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Preston's 10 matches and 2 of Millwall's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?