Portsmouth vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fratton Park
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.25
Draw
3.30
Away Win
3.54
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Portsmouth
Stoke
Tyrese Shade ⚽
6'
Ebou Adams 🟨
22'
29'
🟨 Junior Tchamadeu
Regan Poole 🟨
45+1'
55'
🟨 Róbert Boženík
59'
⚽ Jack Mcglynn (Luca Bombino)
72'
🟨 Ethan Galbraith
77'
⚽ Ben Wilmot
Terry Devlin 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
8
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
0
14
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
5
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1)
N. Schmid
T. Devlin
R. Poole
M. Dia
J. Meghoma
E. Adams
M. Pack
A. Segecic
O. Bailey
A. Kamara
T. Shade
Stoke (3-4-3)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
B. Lawal
L. Graham
J. Tchamadeu
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
B. Johnson
J. McGlynn
R. Boženík
M. Manhoef
Player Ratings ?
Portsmouth
T. ShadeF7.3
R. Kavuma McQueenF6.9
O. BaileyM6.5
Stoke
J. McGlynnF7.2
B. WilmotD7.2
V. JohanssonG7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Portsmouth edge head-to-head, Stoke edge recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stoke slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Portsmouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides have displayed impressive consistency in their most recent outings, with Stoke boasting a perfect away record of four wins and one draw from five matches, while Portsmouth mirror that stability at home with identical figures of four victories and a solitary draw. Portsmouth have found the net in every single one of their last five home fixtures but have conceded goals in four of those same five matches, leaving just a solitary clean sheet to their credit during this run. Stoke hold a slight advantage in form, while Portsmouth hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Portsmouth won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Stoke's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Portsmouth's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points, while Stoke's implied win probability has fallen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Stoke losing run
13
Portsmouth points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Stoke
Stoke's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stoke win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Portsmouth remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Portsmouth win
Latest market chance 42.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.8% → 42.9%
+4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 29.2%
+0.5 pts
Stoke win
Latest market chance 27.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
32.5% → 27.9%
−4.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Portsmouth
Draw
Stoke
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PortsmouthStoke
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
14
Games Played
14
1.57
Points/Game
1.86
1.36
Goals/Game
1.57
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.21
13.4
Shots/Game
11.3
3.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Portsmouth at home (8 matches) vs Stoke away (8 matches)
1.62
Points/Game
2.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
62%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Portsmouth
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stoke
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Portsmouth Wins
2
Draws
0
Stoke Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.8
Stoke1 – 3Portsmouth
Portsmouth0 – 1Stoke
Portsmouth3 – 1Stoke
Stoke6 – 1Portsmouth
Portsmouth1 – 2Stoke
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Portsmouthvs
Stoke
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
0.90
Goals conceded / game
0.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.7%→Latest 43.7%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 49.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?