Portsmouth vs Millwall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fratton Park
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.55
Draw
3.35
Away Win
2.87
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Portsmouth
Millwall
6'
⚽ Jenson Metcalfe
Lyndon Dykes ⚽ (OG)
16'
24'
🟨 Tristan Crama
45'
🟨 Jake Cooper
Marko Milovanović 🟨
71'
Thomas Waddingham ⚽
82'
Zak Swanson 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
7
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
1
5
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
6
0
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1)
N. Schmid
T. Devlin
R. Poole
M. Dia
Z. Swanson
M. Pack
I. Mohamed
A. Kamara
A. Segecic
R. Kavuma McQueen
M. Milovanović
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
M. Crocombe
T. Crama
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
Jenson Metcalfe
D. Mazou-Sacko
C. Neghli
L. Cundle
K. Lisbie
L. Dykes
Player Ratings ?
Portsmouth
T. WaddinghamF7.8
T. ShadeF6.8
R. Kavuma McQueenM6.7
Millwall
Jenson MetcalfeM8.2
C. TaylorD6.5
Zak Norton SturgeD6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Portsmouth edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Portsmouth stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Portsmouth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Portsmouth stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Millwall have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Portsmouth mirror that record with two victories and a draw in their last five home fixtures. Portsmouth have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have managed just one clean sheet during that same span. Portsmouth face ten confirmed absences, whereas Millwall carry six certain outcasts alongside two players listed as doubtful. Portsmouth rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Portsmouth won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 21 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Millwall's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Portsmouth's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Millwall's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Millwall
Millwall's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Portsmouth remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Portsmouth win
Latest market chance 37.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.1% → 37.9%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 28.6%
+0.4 pts
Millwall win
Latest market chance 33.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
35.7% → 33.5%
−2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Portsmouth
Draw
Millwall
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PortsmouthMillwall
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
12th
11
Games Played
11
1.36
Points/Game
1.36
1.27
Goals/Game
1.64
1.27
Conceded/Game
1.64
13.4
Shots/Game
14.0
3.6
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Portsmouth at home (8 matches) vs Millwall away (8 matches)
1.62
Points/Game
0.88
1.75
Goals/Game
1.00
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.25
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Portsmouth
Home form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Millwall
Away form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Portsmouth Wins
2
Draws
0
Millwall Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Millwall1 – 3Portsmouth
Portsmouth3 – 1Millwall
Millwall2 – 1Portsmouth
Portsmouth0 – 1Millwall
Portsmouth0 – 1Millwall
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Portsmouthvs
Millwall
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.1%→Latest 48.0%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?