Norwich vs Watford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Carrow Road
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.55
Draw
4.49
Away Win
6.02
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Norwich
Watford
10'
⚽ Myron Boadu (Iker Bravo)
27'
⚽ Myron Boadu (Matthew Pollock)
41'
🟨 Matthew Pollock
Benjamin Chrisene ⚽
53'
Anthony Musaba (Mathias Kvistgaarden) ⚽
62'
Jose Cordoba 🟨
63'
Paris Maghoma (Mathias Kvistgaarden) ⚽
71'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
15
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
5
9
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
D. Grimshaw
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
B. Chrisene
Jacob Wright
S. Field
A. Brooks
P. Maghoma
A. Musaba
M. Kvistgaarden
Watford (5-3-2)
F. Ravaglia
K. Diatta
K. Keben
M. Pollock
Branimir Mlačić
J. Zemura
E. Kayembe
H. Kyprianou
M. Payero
Iker Bravo
M. Boadu
Player Ratings ?
Norwich
P. MaghomaM7.8
B. ChriseneD7.2
A. MusabaM7.2
Watford
M. BoaduF8.4
M. PollockD6.8
M. DoumbiaF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Norwich edge recent form, attack and defence, Watford edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Watford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Watford head into this Championship clash with a dismal away record of five defeats from their last five outings, while Norwich have secured just two wins in their own home sample over the same span. The Canaries have scored in three of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Norwich face significant availability concerns with four players out and two doubtful, whereas Watford have five confirmed absences but no doubts regarding their squad. Norwich rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Watford rate stronger on head-to-head. Watford won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 29 December 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Norwich's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Norwich's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points, while Watford's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Norwich losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
0
Watford points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Norwich
Norwich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Norwich win
Latest market chance 61.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
58.3% → 61.7%
+3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
22.4% → 21.4%
−1.0 pts
Watford win
Latest market chance 16.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
19.3% → 16.9%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Norwich
Draw
Watford
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NorwichWatford
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
21st
12
Games Played
12
1.00
Points/Game
0.92
1.67
Goals/Game
0.83
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.67
14.7
Shots/Game
12.1
5.3
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Norwich at home (7 matches) vs Watford away (7 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.14
1.86
Goals/Game
0.57
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.00
43%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Norwich
Home form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Watford
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Norwich Wins
3
Draws
0
Watford Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Norwich0 – 1Watford
Watford3 – 2Norwich
Watford0 – 1Norwich
Norwich4 – 1Watford
Norwich4 – 2Watford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Norwichvs
Watford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 61.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 57.8%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?