Norwich vs Southampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Carrow Road
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.66
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Norwich
Southampton
15'
🟨 Ryan Manning
26'
🟨 Zach Abbott
Jacob Wright 🟨
48'
54'
⚽ Kuryu Matsuki
Samuel Field 🟨
77'
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
D. Grimshaw
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
B. Chrisene
Jacob Wright
P. Mattsson
A. Brooks
A. Ben Slimane
O. Schwartau
M. Kvistgaarden
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
Z. Abbott
J. Stephens
K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning
J. Ward-Prowse
F. Downes
K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
S. Edozie
L. Dobbin
Player Ratings ?
Norwich
P. MattssonM7.2
Ruairi McConvilleD7.2
Jacob WrightM7.0
Southampton
K. MatsukiM8.1
J. StephensD7.4
F. AzazM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Southampton edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Southampton have drawn three and lost two of their last five away outings, while Norwich have won two and drawn one from their last five home matches. Norwich have scored in all five home games but have kept zero clean sheets during that same sample. Six players are unavailable for Norwich ahead of this fixture. Southampton rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Southampton won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Norwich's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Norwich's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Southampton's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Norwich
Norwich's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Norwich win
Latest market chance 39.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
41.2% → 39.0%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 25.1%
+0.2 pts
Southampton win
Latest market chance 36.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.9% → 36.0%
+2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Norwich
Draw
Southampton
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NorwichSouthampton
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
1.00
Points/Game
1.89
1.89
Goals/Game
2.22
2.11
Conceded/Game
1.11
14.7
Shots/Game
15.6
5.3
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Norwich at home (7 matches) vs Southampton away (8 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
1.12
1.86
Goals/Game
1.12
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.25
43%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Norwich
Home form
D
L
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Southampton
Away form
D
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Norwich Wins
1
Draws
2
Southampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Southampton1 – 0Norwich
Norwich2 – 1Southampton
Norwich1 – 1Southampton
Southampton4 – 4Norwich
Southampton2 – 0Norwich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Norwichvs
Southampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.20
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.2%→Latest 63.6%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 65.7%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Norwich's 10 matches and 1 of Southampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?