Millwall vs Swansea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Den
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.44
Away Win
2.87
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Millwall
Swansea
15'
🟨 Jay Fulton
Derek Mazou Sacko 🟨
23'
23'
🟨 Vitor Matos
Lyndon Dykes 🟨
44'
Zak Sturge 🟨
51'
83'
🟨 Filip Lissah
90'
⚽ Ronald Pereira Martins (Joseph Amankwaah Opoku)
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
8
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
2
13
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
F. Marschall
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
Jenson Metcalfe
M. Sykes
C. Neghli
K. Lisbie
L. Dykes
Swansea (4-3-3)
L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah
B. Cabango
J. Seelt
J. Tymon
E. Just
J. Fulton
M. Stamenić
M. Yeo
Z. Vipotnik
Joseph Okopu
Player Ratings ?
Millwall
Jenson MetcalfeM7.0
C. TaylorD7.0
J. Osei-TutuD6.7
Swansea
RonaldF7.7
B. CabangoD7.5
J. SeeltD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Millwall edge attack and head-to-head, Swansea edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Millwall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Swansea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swansea have enjoyed a solid run away from home with three wins and a draw in their last five outings, while Millwall have secured two victories at the club's ground but also suffered two defeats in that same span. The Lions have found the net in three of their last five home matches and kept a clean sheet on two occasions during that period. There are five players unavailable for Millwall and three missing from Swansea's squad ahead of this Championship fixture. Swansea rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Millwall rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Millwall won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Swansea's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Millwall's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Swansea's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
47%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Millwall
Millwall's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Millwall win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.8% → 38.5%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 27.4%
−0.2 pts
Swansea win
Latest market chance 34.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
35.6% → 34.1%
−1.5 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MillwallSwansea
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
1st
9
Games Played
9
1.56
Points/Game
2.22
1.78
Goals/Game
1.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
0.78
14.0
Shots/Game
11.9
3.9
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Millwall at home (7 matches) vs Swansea away (8 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
1.50
2.14
Goals/Game
1.38
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.88
43%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Millwall
Home form
L
W
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swansea
Away form
D
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Millwall Wins
4
Draws
1
Swansea Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
Millwall2 – 1Swansea
Swansea1 – 1Millwall
Millwall1 – 0Swansea
Swansea0 – 1Millwall
Swansea0 – 1Millwall
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Millwallvs
Swansea
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.70
Goals conceded / game
0.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 50.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 56.0%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Millwall's 10 matches and 1 of Swansea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?