Millwall vs Lincoln Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Den
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.58
Draw
4.37
Away Win
5.70
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Millwall
Lincoln
1'
⚽ Andrei Coubiș
33'
⚽ Robert Nicholas Street (Sonny Bradley)
Tristan Crama 🟨
35'
35'
🟨 Robert Nicholas Street
41'
🟨 F. Draper
Kyrell Lisbie ⚽
63'
69'
🟨 Andrei Coubiș
Kyrell Lisbie 🟨
72'
Jake Cooper ⚽
82'
84'
🟥 Deji Elerewe
Zak Sturge 🟨
86'
Ryan Leonard 🟨
90+1'
90+1'
🟨 Callum Elder
Camiel Neghli 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
18
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Goal
3
12
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
10
6
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
6
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
F. Marschall
T. Crama
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
Jenson Metcalfe
M. Sykes
C. Neghli
K. Lisbie
L. Dykes
Lincoln (4-2-3-1)
G. Wickens
A. Coubiș
D. Elerewe
S. Bradley
A. Reach
Y. Konak
I. Varfolomeev
R. Hackett
R. Street
D. Jefferies
F. Draper
Player Ratings ?
Millwall
J. CooperD7.8
K. LisbieM7.6
C. TaylorD6.7
Lincoln
R. StreetM7.3
S. BradleyD6.8
A. CoubișD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Millwall edge recent form, attack and defence, Lincoln edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Millwall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lincoln slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lincoln have secured three victories from their last five away outings, whereas Millwall have registered two wins and a draw in their corresponding home fixtures over the same span. At home, Millwall have found the net in three of their last five matches while keeping a clean sheet on two occasions within that identical sequence. Seven players are unavailable for Millwall, with Lincoln facing similar concerns as two teammates are out and one is doubtful. Millwall rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Lincoln hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 1999. Over the 3-day comparison window, Millwall's implied win probability has risen by 10.8 percentage points, while Lincoln's implied win probability has fallen by 7.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Millwall
Millwall's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Millwall win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Millwall win
Latest market chance 59.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
48.4% → 59.2%
+10.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
26.8% → 23.2%
−3.6 pts
Lincoln win
Latest market chance 17.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
24.7% → 17.5%
−7.2 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MillwallLincoln
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
18th
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
1.10
1.60
Goals/Game
0.70
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.70
14.0
Shots/Game
12.3
3.9
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Millwall at home (7 matches) vs Lincoln away (8 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
1.25
2.14
Goals/Game
0.88
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.25
43%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Millwall
Home form
W
L
W
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lincoln
Away form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Millwall Wins
1
Draws
0
Lincoln Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Lincoln2 – 0Millwall
Millwall2 – 0Lincoln
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Millwallvs
Lincoln
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.1%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 50.8%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?