Middlesbrough vs Cardiff Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Riverside Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.55
Draw
5.00
Away Win
5.19
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Middlesbrough
Cardiff
19'
🟨 Brian Barry-Murphy
22'
⚽ Jack Moylan (Ollie·Tanner)
25'
🟨 Joel Bagan
45+1'
⚽ Ollie·Tanner (Jack Moylan)
Tommy Conway (Callum Brittain) ⚽
58'
will lankshear (Amario Cozier-Duberry) ⚽
61'
83'
🟥 Gabriel Osho
88'
🟨 Jack Moylan
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
36
Total Shots
7
12
Shots on Goal
3
11
Corner Kicks
4
9
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
R. Vítek
C. Brittain
L. Ayling
A. Phillips
Neto Borges
A. Morris
A. Malanda
A. Cozier-Duberry
R. McGree
T. Conway
K. Joseph
Cardiff (4-1-4-1)
N. Trott
R. Kpakio
K. Bielik
G. Osho
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
O. Tanner
J. Colwill
Cian Ashford
C. Willock
J. Moylan
Player Ratings ?
Middlesbrough
T. ConwayM8.2
W. LankshearF8.1
C. BrittainD7.8
Cardiff
O. TannerM8.0
J. MoylanF7.8
N. TrottG7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Middlesbrough a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough have enjoyed a perfect record in their last five home outings with four wins and no defeats, while Cardiff have struggled away from home with just a single draw from their last five matches. The Boro have found the net in all of their last five home fixtures but have conceded goals in four of those same outings, leaving them with only one clean sheet in that span. Middlesbrough face three confirmed absences ahead of kickoff, whereas Cardiff carry a single certain absence alongside two players listed as doubtful for the clash. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 4 January 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Middlesbrough's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Cardiff's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Middlesbrough a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as more likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 61.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
60.8% → 61.7%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.4% → 19.9%
−0.5 pts
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.8% → 18.4%
−0.4 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MiddlesbroughCardiff
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
19th
10
Games Played
10
2.10
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.60
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.50
19.1
Shots/Game
16.7
6.1
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Middlesbrough at home (7 matches) vs Cardiff away (7 matches)
2.43
Points/Game
0.29
2.43
Goals/Game
0.86
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.00
71%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Middlesbrough
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cardiff
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Middlesbrough Wins
4
Draws
1
Cardiff Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Middlesbrough1 – 1Cardiff
Cardiff0 – 2Middlesbrough
Cardiff1 – 4Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 0Cardiff
Cardiff1 – 3Middlesbrough
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Middlesbroughvs
Cardiff
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 70.4%→Latest 69.6%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 64.8%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?