Lincoln vs Burnley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sincil Bank
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.76
Draw
3.59
Away Win
2.51
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Lincoln
Burnley
39'
⚽ Andréas Hountondji (Lucas Pires Silva)
Ben House (Andrei Coubiș) ⚽
45+3'
Mikkel Ladefoged ⚽
49'
Dom Jefferies ⚽
57'
Mikkel Ladefoged (Ben House) ⚽
67'
67'
🟨 Grégoire Coudert
Ben House 🟨
73'
84'
• Marcus Edwards
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
21
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Lincoln (4-2-3-1)
G. Wickens
A. Coubiș
S. Bradley
D. Elerewe
A. Reach
C. McGrandles
Y. Konak
R. Hackett
B. House
D. Jefferies
M. Ladefoged
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
G. Coudert
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
Igor
Lucas Pires
Max Alleyne
R. Hatate
L. Ramazani
J. Laurent
D. Satpaev
A. Broja
Player Ratings ?
Lincoln
M. LadefogedF8.6
B. HouseM8.2
D. JefferiesM8.0
Burnley
A. HountondjiF7.5
Max AlleyneM6.4
M. EdwardsF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lincoln edge recent form, Burnley edge attack, defence and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lincoln stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lincoln have struggled at home with just two draws from their last five outings, while Burnley have managed only a single win and draw in their away fixtures over the same span. The Imps have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that period. Lincoln face two confirmed absences ahead of this fixture, whereas Burnley carry nine certain and three doubtful concerns for their squad. Lincoln rate stronger on form, while Burnley rate stronger on attack, while defence and head-to-head are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 1999. Over the 4-day comparison window, Lincoln's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Burnley's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Lincoln losing run
2
Lincoln points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Burnley
Burnley's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lincoln win
Latest market chance 33.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
32.1% → 33.9%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.3% → 27.6%
+0.3 pts
Burnley win
Latest market chance 38.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
40.6% → 38.6%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lincoln
Draw
Burnley
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LincolnBurnley
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
22nd
11
Games Played
11
1.09
Points/Game
0.73
0.82
Goals/Game
1.45
1.73
Conceded/Game
1.91
12.3
Shots/Game
13.5
3.1
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Lincoln at home (7 matches) vs Burnley away (8 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
0.62
1.14
Goals/Game
1.75
2.29
Conceded/Game
2.62
14%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lincoln
Home form
L
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burnley
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lincoln Wins
0
Draws
2
Burnley Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Lincoln1 – 1Burnley
Burnley1 – 1Lincoln
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lincolnvs
Burnley
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 50.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 55.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?