Derby vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Derby have struggled at home with three defeats and two draws from their last five outings, while Stoke have recorded two wins alongside a draw in just as many away fixtures. Derby have scored in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Derby face seven confirmed absences and one doubtful inclusion, whereas Stoke have four players unavailable with no doubts remaining over their squad. Stoke rate stronger on form and attack, while defence and head-to-head are closely matched. Derby won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 6 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Stoke's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points, while Stoke's implied win probability has risen by 4.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stoke a slight edge.