Derby vs Norwich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pride Park Stadium
Tue 03 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.52
Draw
3.67
Away Win
2.08
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 4
Match Events ?
Derby
Norwich
8'
⚽ Anthony Musaba
27'
⚽ Paris Maghoma (Jack Stacey)
Ryan Nyambe 🟨
38'
44'
⚽ Darlin Yongwa
66'
⚽ J. Makama
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
6
Total Shots
19
2
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Derby (4-4-2)
J. Widell Zetterström
I. Gordon
R. Nyambe
D. Sanderson
M. Johnston
S. Szmodics
A. Mowatt
O. Fraulo
B. Clark
H. Meister
C. Morris
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
D. Grimshaw
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
H. Darling
D. Yongwa
S. Field
Jacob Wright
A. Brooks
P. Maghoma
A. Musaba
M. Kvistgaarden
Player Ratings ?
Derby
M. FuseiniF7.1
J. Widell ZetterströmG6.6
H. MeisterF6.4
Norwich
P. MaghomaM8.2
A. MusabaM8.2
J. StaceyD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Norwich
Norwich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Norwich a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Norwich slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have struggled at home with just a single draw in their last five outings, while Norwich look more comfortable on the road despite losing three of their away fixtures over the same period. The Rams have failed to keep a clean sheet in five home matches and have managed to score in only two of those recent encounters. Derby face eight confirmed absences ahead of the clash, whereas Norwich are dealing with four certain injuries alongside one player listed as doubtful. Norwich rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Norwich won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Derby's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Norwich's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Norwich a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Norwich losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Derby points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Derby
Derby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Norwich remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Derby win
Latest market chance 28.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.5% → 28.2%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.3%
+0.5 pts
Norwich win
Latest market chance 45.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
44.8% → 45.5%
+0.7 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DerbyNorwich
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
15th
13
Games Played
13
0.54
Points/Game
1.15
0.85
Goals/Game
1.77
1.92
Conceded/Game
1.85
11.9
Shots/Game
14.7
3.8
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Derby at home (8 matches) vs Norwich away (8 matches)
0.62
Points/Game
1.50
0.88
Goals/Game
2.38
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.50
12%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Derby
Home form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Norwich
Away form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Derby Wins
1
Draws
1
Norwich Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Norwich2 – 1Derby
Derby1 – 0Norwich
Norwich1 – 1Derby
Derby2 – 3Norwich
Derby0 – 1Norwich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Derbyvs
Norwich
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 55.7%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 58.6%−2.3 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?