Derby vs Bolton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pride Park Stadium
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.55
Draw
3.71
Away Win
2.67
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Derby
Bolton
42'
⚽ Ruben Rodrigues (Gaizka Larrazabal)
Ryan Nyambe (Mohammed Fuseini) ⚽
46'
Jack Robinson (Carlton Morris) ⚽
49'
62'
🟨 Luca Stephenson
Rhian Brewster ⚽
90+4'
Rhian Brewster 🟨
90+4'
90+5'
🟨 Gaizka Larrazabal
Match Statistics ?
30%
Ball Possession
70%
9
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
6
12
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Widell Zetterström
R. Nyambe
S. Duffy
D. Sanderson
J. Robinson
L. Travis
D. Ozoh
R. Brewster
B. Clark
M. Fuseini
C. Morris
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
J. Bonham
Luca Stephenson
C. Forino-Joseph
A. Famewo
M. Conway
X. Simons
J. Sheehan
Gaizka Larrazabal
Ruben Rodrigues
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Player Ratings ?
Derby
C. MorrisF7.7
J. RobinsonD7.5
R. NyambeD7.4
Bolton
Ruben RodriguesM8.2
J. SheehanM7.2
T. GaleM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bolton
Bolton rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Derby edge head-to-head, giving Bolton a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bolton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bolton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bolton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Derby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
While Bolton have enjoyed an encouraging run away from home with three wins and a draw in their last five outings, Derby have struggled at the ground with just one draw and four defeats during that same period. Derby have found the net in only two of their last five home matches and have failed to keep a single clean sheet across that recent sequence. Both sides carry squad concerns ahead of the clash, with Derby facing seven confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player, while Bolton have five out and one doubtful available for selection. Bolton rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Derby rate stronger on head-to-head. Derby won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 16 March 2024, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Bolton's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 4.4 percentage points, while Bolton's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Bolton a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bolton losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Derby points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Derby
Derby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Derby win
Latest market chance 38.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
42.4% → 38.0%
−4.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.7%
+0.3 pts
Bolton win
Latest market chance 35.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.2% → 35.3%
+4.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Derby
Draw
Bolton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DerbyBolton
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
17th
14
Games Played
14
0.50
Points/Game
1.21
0.79
Goals/Game
1.36
2.07
Conceded/Game
1.86
11.9
Shots/Game
14.1
3.8
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Derby at home (8 matches) vs Bolton away (8 matches)
0.62
Points/Game
1.38
0.88
Goals/Game
1.38
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.75
12%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Derby
Home form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bolton
Away form
L
W
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Derby Wins
3
Draws
1
Bolton Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Derby1 – 0Bolton
Bolton2 – 1Derby
Derby2 – 1Bolton
Bolton0 – 0Derby
Derby4 – 0Bolton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Derbyvs
Bolton
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.20
Goals conceded / game
2.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 56.3%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.5%→Latest 60.4%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?