Cardiff vs Watford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Cardiff City Stadium
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
4.34
Away Win
4.26
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 1
Match Events ?
Cardiff
Watford
9'
🟨 Martin Payero
Jack Moylan ⚽ (P)
11'
Jack Moylan (C. Ashford) ⚽
35'
Matthew Pollock ⚽ (OG)
41'
Ollie·Tanner (Perry Tian Hee Ng) ⚽
45+5'
Christopher Willock •
65'
73'
🟨 Edo Kayembe
Callum Robinson (David Turnbull) ⚽
85'
86'
🟨 Amin Nabizada
Perry Tian Hee Ng 🟨
86'
87'
⚽ Hector Kyprianou (Iker Bravo)
90+5'
🟨 Hector Kyprianou
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
22
Total Shots
14
10
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
1
12
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
D. Lawlor
G. Osho
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
Cian Ashford
O. Tanner
J. Colwill
C. Willock
J. Moylan
Watford (4-2-3-1)
F. Ravaglia
O. Traoré
M. Pollock
K. Keben
J. Zemura
E. Kayembe
H. Kyprianou
O. Maamma
M. Payero
S. Mavididi
M. Boadu
Player Ratings ?
Cardiff
O. TannerM8.2
J. MoylanF8.1
Cian AshfordM7.5
Watford
H. KyprianouM7.3
Iker BravoF6.7
F. RavagliaG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cardiff edge attack, defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cardiff slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Watford arrive at Cardiff with a poor away record of just one draw and four defeats from their last five outings, while the Bluebirds have been solid at home with no losses in that same span. Cardiff have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Both squads carry two players unavailable for selection, though Watford also list two additional names as doubtful ahead of the fixture. Cardiff rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 14 January 2025, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 56.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
56.4% → 56.2%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.4% → 22.4%
±0.0 pts
Watford win
Latest market chance 21.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.1% → 21.4%
+0.3 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Cardiff
Watford
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
20th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
0.89
1.22
Goals/Game
0.78
1.56
Conceded/Game
1.56
16.7
Shots/Game
12.1
6.3
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Cardiff at home (8 matches) vs Watford away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.14
2.62
Goals/Game
0.57
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cardiff
Home form
D
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Watford
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cardiff Wins
3
Draws
2
Watford Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
2025-01-142024-2025
Cardiff1 – 1Watford
2024-12-292024-2025
Watford1 – 2Cardiff
2024-02-032023-2024
Watford0 – 1Cardiff
2023-10-072023-2024
Cardiff1 – 1Watford
2023-04-192022-2023
Watford1 – 3Cardiff
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cardiff
vs
Watford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
82.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
62.8%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
41.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
62.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 62.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.6%→Latest 62.0%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Cardiff's 10 matches and 1 of Watford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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