Cardiff vs Burnley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.06
Draw
3.94
Away Win
3.36
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 4
Match Events ?
Cardiff
Burnley
15'
⚽ Andréas Hountondji (Lucas Pires Silva)
25'
⚽ Marcus Edwards (Jaydon Banel)
Ollie·Tanner (Rubin Colwill) ⚽
40'
Krystian Bielik 🟨
50'
55'
⚽ Largie Ramazani
62'
⚽ (OG) Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson
Yousef Salech (C. Ashford) ⚽
65'
Jack Moylan ⚽ (P)
75'
Joel Bagan 🟨
79'
79'
🟨 Largie Ramazani
Yousef Salech (Rubin Colwill) ⚽
82'
Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson (Christopher Willock) ⚽
90+4'
90+9'
🟨 Kyle Walker
90+11'
🟨 Josh Laurent
Rubin Colwill 🟨
90+11'
Yousef Salech 🟨
90+13'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
25
Total Shots
15
11
Shots on Goal
8
5
Corner Kicks
6
8
Fouls
10
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
W. Fish
K. Bielik
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
Cian Ashford
O. Tanner
R. Colwill
C. Willock
J. Moylan
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
G. Coudert
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
Igor
Lucas Pires
J. Laurent
R. Hatate
L. Ramazani
M. Edwards
J. Banel
A. Hountondji
Player Ratings ?
Cardiff
Y. SalechF8.8
R. ColwillM8.2
A. RobertsonM8.0
Burnley
L. RamazaniM8.2
A. HountondjiF7.9
M. EdwardsM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cardiff edge recent form, attack and defence, Burnley edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cardiff slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cardiff have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Burnley have struggled on the road with just one win and two draws alongside two defeats in their last five away matches. The Bluebirds have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures but have only kept one clean sheet during that same span. Cardiff rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Burnley rate stronger on head-to-head. Burnley won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 March 2025, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Cardiff's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Cardiff's implied win probability has risen by 4.9 percentage points, while Burnley's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Cardiff
Cardiff's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cardiff win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 46.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.2% → 46.1%
+4.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.6% → 24.9%
−0.7 pts
Burnley win
Latest market chance 28.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.2% → 28.9%
−4.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cardiff
Draw
Burnley
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CardiffBurnley
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
22nd
14
Games Played
14
1.07
Points/Game
0.71
1.57
Goals/Game
1.29
1.64
Conceded/Game
1.86
16.7
Shots/Game
13.5
6.3
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Cardiff at home (8 matches) vs Burnley away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.62
2.62
Goals/Game
1.75
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.62
50%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cardiff
Home form
D
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burnley
Away form
D
L
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cardiff Wins
0
Draws
1
Burnley Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Cardiff1 – 2Burnley
Burnley5 – 0Cardiff
Burnley3 – 0Cardiff
Cardiff1 – 1Burnley
Burnley2 – 0Cardiff
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cardiffvs
Burnley
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 62.2%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.9%→Latest 64.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?