Cardiff vs Birmingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.77
Draw
3.82
Away Win
2.40
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Cardiff
Birmingham
Yousef Salech •
22'
Yousef Salech (Ollie·Tanner) ⚽
31'
50'
🟨 Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
81'
🟨 Christoph·Klarer
Joel Bagan 🟨
82'
90+5'
🟨 Chris Davies
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
16
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
19
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
W. Fish
J. Bagan
C. Scanlon
A. Robertson
J. Moylan
O. Tanner
J. Colwill
Cian Ashford
Y. Salech
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
Carlos Vicente
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
L. Vázquez
Player Ratings ?
Cardiff
Y. SalechF7.7
W. FishD7.3
J. MoylanM7.2
Birmingham
P. RobertsM6.7
P. NeumannD6.6
D. GrayF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cardiff edge attack and head-to-head, Birmingham edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cardiff slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cardiff stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cardiff have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings with two wins and three draws, while Birmingham have recorded three away victories from a sample of five matches that also includes one draw and a single defeat. The Bluebirds have scored in every one of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Cardiff face three confirmed absences and one player listed as doubtful, whereas Birmingham have two players unavailable for selection with no doubts remaining over their squad. Birmingham rate stronger on form and defence, while Cardiff rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Cardiff won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 April 2024, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Birmingham's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Cardiff's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points, while Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Cardiff
Cardiff's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cardiff win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Birmingham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 35.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
37.0% → 35.0%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 25.7%
±0.0 pts
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
37.3% → 39.3%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cardiff
Draw
Birmingham
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CardiffBirmingham
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
5th
11
Games Played
11
1.00
Points/Game
1.82
1.64
Goals/Game
1.82
1.55
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.7
Shots/Game
14.3
6.3
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Cardiff at home (8 matches) vs Birmingham away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.86
2.62
Goals/Game
1.29
1.62
Conceded/Game
0.86
50%
Win Rate
57%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cardiff
Home form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Birmingham
Away form
D
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cardiff Wins
3
Draws
1
Birmingham Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.4
Birmingham0 – 1Cardiff
Cardiff0 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham0 – 2Cardiff
Cardiff1 – 0Birmingham
Cardiff1 – 1Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cardiffvs
Birmingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 59.8%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.9%→Latest 62.8%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?