Burnley vs Wolves Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Turf Moor
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.93
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.38
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Burnley
Wolves
Jamie Vardy (Jacob Bruun Larsen) ⚽
20'
39'
⚽ Fer López (Sean Neave)
Reo Hatate 🟨
63'
70'
🟨 Sean Neave
72'
⚽ Tawanda Chirewa (Mateus Mane)
Kyle Walker 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
15
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Goal
8
3
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
7
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
G. Coudert
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
Igor
Lucas Pires
Max Alleyne
R. Hatate
L. Ramazani
J. Laurent
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Vardy
Wolves (4-2-3-1)
José Sá
J. Tchatchoua
N. Djiga
Toti Gomes
G. Konan
M. Munetsi
André
J. Bellegarde
Fer López
R. Saïd
S. Neave
Player Ratings ?
Burnley
J. Bruun LarsenM7.7
J. VardyF7.6
D. SatpaevF6.9
Wolves
Fer LópezM7.8
T. ChirewaF7.6
M. ManeF7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burnley edge attack and head-to-head, Wolves edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Wolves stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Wolves have secured two victories and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Burnley remain winless at home with four draws and a solitary defeat in their recent five matches. Burnley have found the net in all five of their home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. The hosts face eight absentees and five doubts, while Wolves will be without four players with two others under question. Wolves rate stronger on form, while Burnley rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Burnley's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points, while Wolves's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Wolves
Wolves's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Wolves win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burnley win
Latest market chance 32.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.9% → 32.3%
+2.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.1% → 27.1%
+1.0 pts
Wolves win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.0% → 40.6%
−3.4 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurnleyWolves
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
10th
10
Games Played
9
0.80
Points/Game
1.56
1.50
Goals/Game
1.78
1.90
Conceded/Game
1.56
13.5
Shots/Game
16.9
4.2
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Burnley at home (7 matches) vs Wolves away (8 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
1.75
1.14
Goals/Game
1.62
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.38
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burnley
Home form
D
D
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Wolves
Away form
W
L
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burnley Wins
2
Draws
2
Wolves Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Burnley1 – 1Wolves
Wolves2 – 3Burnley
Burnley1 – 1Wolves
Wolves1 – 0Burnley
Burnley1 – 0Wolves
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burnleyvs
Wolves
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 52.1%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.0%→Latest 57.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?