Burnley vs Charlton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Turf Moor
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.64
Draw
4.04
Away Win
5.40
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Burnley
Charlton
Jacob Bruun Larsen (Josh Laurent) ⚽
36'
50'
⚽ Kayne Ramsay (Lloyd Jones)
Largie Ramazani (Igor Júlio) ⚽
57'
62'
🟨 Conor Coventry
Igor Júlio 🟨
66'
Max Alleyne 🟨
90+4'
90+6'
⚽ Ivan Mesik (Harvey Knibbs)
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
18
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
7
4
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
G. Coudert
K. Walker
A. Ahmedhodžić
Igor
Lucas Pires
Max Alleyne
R. Hatate
L. Ramazani
J. Laurent
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Vardy
Charlton (4-2-3-1)
A. Okonkwo
K. Ramsay
L. Jones
Billy Dawson Koumetio
A. Bell
O. Skipp
C. Coventry
D. McNamara
K. Ahearne-Grant
T. Campbell
M. Leaburn
Player Ratings ?
Burnley
L. RamazaniM7.7
J. Bruun LarsenM7.3
M. EdwardsF7.0
Charlton
I. MesíkD7.5
K. RamsayD7.3
L. JonesD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burnley edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Charlton edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Charlton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burnley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Charlton have recorded a single win and one draw from their last five away fixtures, whereas Burnley sit with three draws and a solitary loss in their most recent five home outings. Burnley have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Burnley face seven confirmed absences and four players listed as doubtful, while Charlton have one certain absence and two others in doubt. Charlton hold a slight advantage in form, while Burnley rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burnley win
Latest market chance 58.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.9% → 58.1%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.8% → 23.7%
−0.1 pts
Charlton win
Latest market chance 18.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.3% → 18.2%
−0.1 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurnleyCharlton
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
12th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
1.44
1.44
Goals/Game
0.89
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.22
13.5
Shots/Game
10.0
4.2
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Burnley at home (7 matches) vs Charlton away (7 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
0.71
1.14
Goals/Game
0.86
1.43
Conceded/Game
2.29
0%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burnley
Home form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Charlton
Away form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burnley Wins
5
Draws
0
Charlton Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Charlton0 – 3Burnley
Burnley4 – 0Charlton
Charlton0 – 3Burnley
Burnley3 – 0Charlton
Charlton0 – 1Burnley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burnleyvs
Charlton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.9%→Latest 51.8%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 51.4%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Burnley's 10 matches and 1 of Charlton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?