Bolton vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.81
Draw
3.36
Away Win
2.60
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Bolton
Stoke
20'
🟥 Maksym Taloverov
34'
🟨 Jack Mcglynn
45+4'
⚽ Lamine Cissé (Ethan Galbraith)
62'
⚽ Ben Wilmot (Jack Mcglynn)
Max Conway 🟨
72'
Thelonius Bair (Gaizka Larrazabal) ⚽
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
30
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
10
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
G. Bazunu
Gaizka Larrazabal
E. Toal
B. Davies
M. Conway
J. Sheehan
E. Erhahon
K. Dong
Ruben Rodrigues
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Stoke (3-4-3)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
M. Talovierov
L. Graham
B. Johnson
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
E. Bocat
J. Devenny
L. Cissé
J. McGlynn
Player Ratings ?
Bolton
T. BairF7.5
J. SheehanM7.2
Ruben RodriguesM7.0
Stoke
B. WilmotD7.8
L. CisséF7.6
J. McGlynnF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stoke edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stoke's away record over their last five outings includes just one win and a single draw alongside three defeats, while Bolton have secured two victories from their home fixtures in the same span but suffered three losses. Bolton have found the net in three of their last five home matches, though they have managed to keep only one clean sheet during that period. Three players are unavailable for Bolton, while two are missing from the Stoke squad ahead of this Championship fixture. Stoke rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. The market has remained broadly steady over the 20-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Stoke
Stoke's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Stoke win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bolton win
Latest market chance 34.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
36.3% → 34.5%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 28.3%
−0.6 pts
Stoke win
Latest market chance 37.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
34.8% → 37.2%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bolton
Draw
Stoke
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BoltonStoke
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
8th
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
1.63
1.38
Goals/Game
1.62
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.50
14.1
Shots/Game
11.3
4.7
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Bolton at home (7 matches) vs Stoke away (8 matches)
0.86
Points/Game
2.00
1.29
Goals/Game
1.50
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.50
29%
Win Rate
62%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bolton
Home form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stoke
Away form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bolton Wins
1
Draws
2
Stoke Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Bolton0 – 0Stoke
Stoke2 – 0Bolton
Stoke2 – 2Bolton
Bolton5 – 0Stoke
Stoke2 – 0Bolton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Boltonvs
Stoke
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.9%→Latest 50.5%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 55.9%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Bolton's 10 matches and 2 of Stoke's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?