Bolton vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.15
Draw
4.59
Away Win
1.58
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 5
Match Events ?
Bolton
Middlesbrough
13'
⚽ Aidan Morris (Amario Cozier-Duberry)
31'
⚽ will lankshear (Tommy Conway)
39'
⚽ (OG) Lewis Brunt
Thelonius Bair (Gaizka Larrazabal) ⚽
45+2'
Josh Sheehan 🟨
63'
73'
⚽ Amario Cozier-Duberry (Riley McGree)
78'
⚽ will lankshear (Riley McGree)
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
12
Total Shots
31
4
Shots on Goal
12
2
Corner Kicks
12
9
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
8
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
G. Bazunu
Gaizka Larrazabal
E. Toal
L. Brunt
A. Famewo
J. Sheehan
E. Erhahon
K. Dong
Ruben Rodrigues
T. Gale
T. Bair
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
R. Vítek
C. Brittain
A. Phillips
A. Malanda
Neto Borges
A. Morris
S. Berhalter
A. Cozier-Duberry
R. McGree
T. Conway
W. Lankshear
Player Ratings ?
Bolton
T. BairF7.5
G. BazunuG7.2
R. HardieF6.8
Middlesbrough
W. LankshearF9.2
A. Cozier-DuberryM8.8
R. McGreeM8.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Middlesbrough a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures, while Bolton have suffered three defeats in that same span at home. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. Bolton face one confirmed absence and another player listed as doubtful, whereas Middlesbrough will be without three squad members for the encounter. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 5-day comparison window, Bolton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while Middlesbrough's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Middlesbrough a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bolton win
Latest market chance 19.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.3% → 19.8%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.3% → 22.1%
−0.2 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 58.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
56.4% → 58.1%
+1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bolton
Draw
Middlesbrough
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BoltonMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
3rd
11
Games Played
11
1.27
Points/Game
2.00
1.36
Goals/Game
2.00
1.64
Conceded/Game
1.45
14.1
Shots/Game
19.1
4.7
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Bolton at home (7 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (8 matches)
0.86
Points/Game
1.50
1.29
Goals/Game
1.62
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.25
29%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bolton
Home form
W
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
L
D
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bolton Wins
0
Draws
0
Middlesbrough Wins
5
Avg Goals
2.4
Bolton0 – 2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 0Bolton
Middlesbrough2 – 0Bolton
Bolton0 – 3Middlesbrough
Bolton1 – 2Middlesbrough
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Boltonvs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.4%→Latest 61.2%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 59.4%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?