Bolton vs Bristol City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toughsheet Community Stadium
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.33
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Bolton
Bristol City
11'
🟨 Joe Williams
13'
⚽ Dominic Ballard (Jason Knight)
Josh Sheehan (Thierry Gale) ⚽
16'
Josh Sheehan 🟨
30'
Sam Dalby (Atsuki Ito) ⚽
57'
84'
⚽ Sam Bellis (Cameron Pring)
90+3'
⚽ Scott Twine (Jed Wallace)
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
19
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
9
11
Corner Kicks
4
5
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
5
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
J. Bonham
Gaizka Larrazabal
C. Forino-Joseph
B. Davies
M. Conway
X. Simons
J. Sheehan
S. Iling-Junior
A. Ito
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
B. Collins
G. Tanner
L. McNally
L. Eissat
C. Pring
J. Knight
B. De Keersmaecker
Rio Cardines
D. Ballard
J. Williams
L. Tolaj
Player Ratings ?
Bolton
J. SheehanM8.2
S. DalbyF7.9
A. ItoM7.4
Bristol City
S. BellF8.2
D. BallardM8.2
S. TwineM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bolton edge attack, Bristol City edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bolton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bristol City have secured two victories and two draws from their last five away outings, while Bolton have suffered four defeats in that same span at home. Bolton have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept only a single clean sheet during that period. The hosts face significant squad disruption with four players out and one doubtful, whereas Bristol City manage just one absence but carry three doubts over their available options. Bristol City rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Bolton rate stronger on attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 5-day comparison window, Bolton's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points, while Bristol City's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bolton losing run
3
Bolton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Bolton
Bolton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Bolton win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. Bristol City remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bolton win
Latest market chance 31.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.9% → 31.5%
−2.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 27.3%
+0.6 pts
Bristol City win
Latest market chance 41.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
39.4% → 41.2%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bolton
Draw
Bristol City
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BoltonBristol City
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
14th
12
Games Played
12
1.17
Points/Game
1.25
1.33
Goals/Game
1.00
1.92
Conceded/Game
1.25
14.1
Shots/Game
13.1
4.7
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Bolton at home (7 matches) vs Bristol City away (7 matches)
0.86
Points/Game
1.71
1.29
Goals/Game
1.71
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.57
29%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bolton
Home form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol City
Away form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bolton Wins
1
Draws
1
Bristol City Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Bristol City2 – 1Bolton
Bolton2 – 2Bristol City
Bolton1 – 0Bristol City
Bristol City2 – 0Bolton
Bristol City6 – 0Bolton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Boltonvs
Bristol City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 52.8%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 57.3%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?