Blackburn vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ewood Park
Tue 03 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.69
Draw
3.34
Away Win
2.75
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Blackburn
Stoke
30'
🟨 El Hadji Soumare
Hayden Carter 🟨
33'
43'
⚽ Jack Mcglynn
62'
🟨 Róbert Boženík
68'
⚽ (OG) Moussa·Baradji
74'
🟨 Viktor Johansson
Augustus Kargbo 🟨
81'
Andri Guðjohnsen ⚽
87'
Andri Guðjohnsen 🟨
90'
90+2'
🟨 Junior Tchamadeu
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
14
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
19
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Blackburn (4-2-3-1)
B. Tóth
R. Alebiosu
H. Carter
S. McLoughlin
H. Pickering
Sam Morsy
Kristi Montgomery
J. Fevrier
T. Cantwell
O. Afolayan
A. Guðjohnsen
Stoke (3-4-3)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
M. Talovierov
L. Graham
B. Johnson
J. McGlynn
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
L. Bombino
M. Manhoef
R. Boženík
J. Devenny
Player Ratings ?
Blackburn
A. GuðjohnsenF7.4
Sam MorsyM7.1
T. CantwellM6.9
Stoke
J. McGlynnM8.2
M. TalovierovD6.8
L. GrahamD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stoke edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stoke stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stoke have secured three wins from their last five away outings, while Blackburn sit on a similar tally of three victories in their home sample. Blackburn have scored in every one of their last five home matches but have only kept just one clean sheet during that same period. The hosts face three confirmed absences and one doubtful case, whereas Stoke are dealing with four confirmed unavailable players for this fixture. Stoke rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 11 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Blackburn's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Stoke's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Blackburn
Blackburn's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Blackburn win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Blackburn win
Latest market chance 36.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.1% → 36.3%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 28.4%
+0.5 pts
Stoke win
Latest market chance 35.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.0% → 35.3%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Blackburn
Draw
Stoke
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BlackburnStoke
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
7th
13
Games Played
13
1.38
Points/Game
1.77
1.46
Goals/Game
1.54
1.54
Conceded/Game
1.23
10.9
Shots/Game
11.3
3.7
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Blackburn at home (8 matches) vs Stoke away (8 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
2.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.50
62%
Win Rate
62%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Blackburn
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stoke
Away form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Blackburn Wins
1
Draws
2
Stoke Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Stoke1 – 1Blackburn
Blackburn1 – 1Stoke
Stoke1 – 0Blackburn
Blackburn0 – 2Stoke
Blackburn3 – 1Stoke
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Blackburnvs
Stoke
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 46.5%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.8%→Latest 52.3%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?