Blackburn vs Cardiff Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Ewood Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.83
Draw
3.71
Away Win
2.40
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Blackburn
Cardiff
Andri Guðjohnsen ⚽
28'
Todd Cantwell (Ryoya Morishita) ⚽
38'
53'
⚽ Callum Robinson (Jack Moylan)
Todd Cantwell 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
17
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Goal
1
11
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Blackburn (4-2-3-1)
B. Tóth
R. Alebiosu
H. Carter
S. McLoughlin
H. Pickering
Sam Morsy
Kristi Montgomery
R. Morishita
T. Cantwell
O. Afolayan
A. Guðjohnsen
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
N. Trott
P. Ng
G. Osho
D. Lawlor
J. Bagan
A. Robertson
J. Colwill
O. Tanner
J. Moylan
Cian Ashford
C. Robinson
Player Ratings ?
Blackburn
T. CantwellM8.2
A. GuðjohnsenF7.8
R. MorishitaM7.2
Cardiff
C. RobinsonF7.4
N. TrottG7.0
J. BaganD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Blackburn edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Blackburn stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Blackburn slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Blackburn stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cardiff arrive with a poor away record of just one draw and four losses from their last five outings, while Blackburn have secured two victories in three defeats at home over the same span. The Eddies have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same recent sample. Blackburn face eight unavailable players while Cardiff have four out, though neither squad carries any doubtful selections ahead of the Championship fixture. Blackburn rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Cardiff won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 15 March 2025, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Blackburn's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Blackburn's implied win probability has fallen by 5.3 percentage points, while Cardiff's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Cardiff points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Cardiff
Cardiff's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cardiff win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Blackburn win
Latest market chance 34.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
36.1% → 34.1%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.3%
−0.4 pts
Cardiff win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
37.2% → 39.6%
+2.4 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+2.5+1.250−1.25Sep 26Sep 30Oct 3Oct 6Oct 10
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Blackburn
Draw
Cardiff
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Blackburn
Cardiff
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
21st
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
0.88
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
10.9
Shots/Game
16.7
3.7
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Blackburn at home (8 matches) vs Cardiff away (7 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
0.29
1.75
Goals/Game
0.86
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.00
62%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Blackburn
Home form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Cardiff
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Blackburn Wins
3
Draws
1
Cardiff Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.8
2025-03-152024-2025
Blackburn1 – 2Cardiff
2024-11-092024-2025
Cardiff1 – 3Blackburn
2024-02-202023-2024
Cardiff0 – 0Blackburn
2023-10-212023-2024
Blackburn1 – 0Cardiff
2023-01-012022-2023
Blackburn1 – 0Cardiff
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Blackburn
vs
Cardiff
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
79.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
59.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
38.9%
BTTSBoth teams score
62.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 59.3%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 20Sep 25Sep 30Oct 5Oct 10
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.6%→Latest 62.6%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 20Sep 25Sep 30Oct 5Oct 10
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Blackburn's 10 matches and 2 of Cardiff's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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