Birmingham vs Swansea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Andrew's Stadium
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.68
Away Win
4.29
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Birmingham
Swansea
12'
• Ross Stewart
Chris Davies 🟨
24'
26'
🟥 Marko Stamenić
Jay Stansfield (Max Bird) ⚽
29'
42'
🟨 Ross Stewart
49'
🟨 Jay Fulton
Jay Stansfield 🟨
54'
Ethan Laird 🟨
55'
65'
⚽ (OG) Christoph·Klarer
Jay Stansfield ⚽
87'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
21
Total Shots
8
8
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
5
8
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
R. Allsop
E. Laird
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
P. Roberts
M. Bird
L. Millar
J. Stansfield
Swansea (4-3-3)
L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah
B. Cabango
J. Seelt
J. Tymon
Gonçalo Franco
J. Fulton
M. Stamenić
M. Yeo
R. Stewart
Eom Ji-Sung
Player Ratings ?
Birmingham
J. StansfieldF8.8
L. MillarM7.2
M. BirdM6.9
Swansea
L. VigourouxG6.9
Joseph OkopuF6.8
M. YeoF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Birmingham
Birmingham rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Birmingham a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have enjoyed an excellent run at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Swansea sit on a mixed away record featuring two victories but three defeats in the same span. The Blues have found the net in all five of their home matches yet have managed to keep a clean sheet just three times during that identical period. Birmingham rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 17 January 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points, while Swansea's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Birmingham a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Birmingham
Birmingham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Birmingham win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 51.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
49.1% → 51.0%
+1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.0%
−0.5 pts
Swansea win
Latest market chance 23.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.4% → 23.0%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Birmingham
Draw
Swansea
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamSwansea
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
6th
14
Games Played
14
1.86
Points/Game
1.86
1.86
Goals/Game
1.50
0.93
Conceded/Game
1.14
14.3
Shots/Game
11.9
5.3
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (8 matches) vs Swansea away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
2.38
Goals/Game
1.38
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.88
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swansea
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
2
Draws
3
Swansea Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.2
Swansea1 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 0Swansea
Birmingham2 – 2Swansea
Swansea1 – 1Birmingham
Swansea3 – 4Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
Swansea
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 50.8%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 53.6%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?