Birmingham vs QPR Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Andrew's Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.00
Draw
3.65
Away Win
3.76
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Birmingham
QPR
Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 🟨
23'
Liam Millar (Tomoki Iwata) ⚽
27'
44'
🟨 Harvey Vale
Liam Millar (Tomoki Iwata) ⚽
49'
50'
🟨 Rayan Jawad Kolli
Christoph·Klarer 🟨
69'
Demarai Gray (Luis Vasquez) ⚽
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
0
Corner Kicks
4
13
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
P. Roberts
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
A. Priske
QPR (4-2-3-1)
P. Charles
K. Adamson
J. Dunne
J. Clarke-Salter
B. Kemper
G. Kamara
R. Edwards
K. Poku
H. Vale
P. Smyth
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Player Ratings ?
Birmingham
L. MillarM9.7
T. IwataM8.6
C. KlarerD7.6
QPR
R. EdwardsM7.2
J. DunneD6.6
Leon ScarlettNone6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Birmingham edge recent form and attack, QPR edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
QPR slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
QPR slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
QPR have enjoyed a solid away run with two wins and three draws from their last five outings, while Birmingham remain unbeaten at home with just one victory in that same span. The Blues have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that period. Birmingham face two confirmed absences for their home side, whereas QPR will manage four certain misses alongside one player listed as doubtful. Birmingham hold a slight advantage in form and attack, while QPR hold a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head. Birmingham won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 11 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to QPR's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 3-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 3 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 47.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
47.2% → 47.1%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.2% → 26.5%
+0.3 pts
QPR win
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.4%
−0.2 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamQPR
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
6th
10
Games Played
10
1.70
Points/Game
1.70
1.70
Goals/Game
1.50
1.10
Conceded/Game
0.90
14.3
Shots/Game
15.1
5.3
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (8 matches) vs QPR away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.29
2.38
Goals/Game
1.14
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.57
50%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
D
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
QPR
Away form
W
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
2
Draws
1
QPR Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
Birmingham1 – 0QPR
QPR2 – 1Birmingham
QPR2 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham0 – 0QPR
QPR0 – 1Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
QPR
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 51.0%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 54.4%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?