Birmingham vs Preston Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Andrew's Stadium
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.58
Draw
4.39
Away Win
5.43
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Birmingham
Preston
Liam Millar (Patrick Roberts) ⚽
34'
August Priske (Alex Cochrane) ⚽
45+2'
August Priske (Jay Stansfield) ⚽
45+4'
47'
🟨 Stanley Mills
Liam Millar 🟨
50'
56'
🟥 Stanley Mills
Demarai Gray (Max Bird) ⚽
76'
Match Statistics ?
76%
Ball Possession
24%
18
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
P. Roberts
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
A. Priske
Preston (3-4-2-1)
D. Iversen
O. Offiah
J. Storey
A. Hughes
S. Mills
L. Leroy
J. Thompson
T. Small
A. Devine
L. Gibbs
C. Lang
Player Ratings ?
Birmingham
A. PriskeF8.8
A. CochraneD8.4
L. MillarM8.1
Preston
C. LangF6.5
D. BurgzorgF6.5
J. StoreyD6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Birmingham
Birmingham rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Birmingham an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings with four draws and a solitary win, while Preston have suffered three defeats away from home alongside just one victory and a draw during that same run. The Blues have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that identical sample. Three Birmingham players are unavailable for selection, whereas Preston face two confirmed absences and one player listed as doubtful. Birmingham rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Birmingham won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Preston's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Preston's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Birmingham.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Preston losing run
5/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Birmingham
Birmingham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Birmingham win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 59.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
58.4% → 59.2%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.1% → 23.0%
−0.1 pts
Preston win
Latest market chance 17.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.5% → 17.9%
−0.6 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamPreston
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
24th
9
Games Played
9
1.56
Points/Game
0.44
1.44
Goals/Game
0.89
1.22
Conceded/Game
1.78
14.3
Shots/Game
11.7
5.3
Shots on Target
2.4
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (8 matches) vs Preston away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.14
2.38
Goals/Game
0.71
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.43
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Preston
Away form
W
L
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
3
Draws
0
Preston Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Birmingham2 – 1Preston
Preston0 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 0Preston
Preston2 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 2Preston
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
Preston
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 55.3%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.8%→Latest 54.1%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Birmingham's 10 matches and 1 of Preston's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?