Birmingham vs Millwall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Andrew's Stadium
Tue 03 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
3.70
Away Win
3.77
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Birmingham
Millwall
Alex Cochrane ⚽
1'
Max Bird (Jhon Elmer Solís Romero) ⚽
16'
Jay Stansfield (Max Bird) ⚽
29'
55'
🟨 Jordi Osei-Tutu
Alex Cochrane 🟨
56'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
19
Total Shots
16
9
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
R. Allsop
E. Laird
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
P. Roberts
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
M. Bird
Millwall (4-4-2)
M. Crocombe
J. Osei-Tutu
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
Zak Norton Sturge
K. Lisbie
C. Neghli
D. Mazou-Sacko
L. Cundle
L. Dykes
M. Ivanović
Player Ratings ?
Birmingham
M. BirdF8.4
J. StansfieldM8.2
J. SolisM7.7
Millwall
C. NeghliM6.8
M. CrocombeG6.7
M. IvanovićF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Birmingham edge recent form, attack and defence, Millwall edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Millwall stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings with two wins and three draws, while Millwall have recorded just one victory and a single draw from their away fixtures over the same span. The Blues have scored in each of their last five home matches but have managed only two clean sheets during that identical sample. Both sides carry squad concerns ahead of the clash, with Birmingham having two confirmed absences and one doubtful player, while Millwall face five confirmed outsidings alongside a single doubt. Birmingham rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Millwall rate stronger on head-to-head. Millwall won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 25 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Birmingham's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 4-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 4 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 47.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
47.0% → 47.5%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.1% → 26.1%
±0.0 pts
Millwall win
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.9% → 26.5%
−0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Birmingham
Draw
Millwall
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamMillwall
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
12th
13
Games Played
13
1.77
Points/Game
1.38
1.77
Goals/Game
1.77
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.62
14.3
Shots/Game
14.0
5.3
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (8 matches) vs Millwall away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.88
2.38
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.25
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Millwall
Away form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
2
Draws
1
Millwall Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Millwall3 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham4 – 0Millwall
Millwall1 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 1Millwall
Millwall0 – 1Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
Millwall
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 53.7%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 56.4%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?