Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Weser-Stadion
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.80
Draw
4.25
Away Win
4.08
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Werder Bremen
Paderborn
4'
🟨 Stefano Marino
18'
⚽ Stefano Marino (Steffen Tigges)
30'
⚽ Steffen Tigges
Niclas Füllkrug (Eren Dinkci) ⚽
59'
Niclas Füllkrug ⚽ (P)
65'
Youri Regeer 🟨
86'
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
18
Total Shots
11
11
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
9
Starting Lineups
Werder Bremen (4-2-3-1)
K. Hein
Arthur
A. Pieper
M. Friedl
O. Deman
L. Reis
Y. Regeer
E. Dinkçi
Chuky San José
M. Grüll
N. Füllkrug
Paderborn (3-1-4-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
S. Castañeda
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
S. Marino
S. Tigges
Player Ratings ?
Werder Bremen
N. FüllkrugF8.2
E. DinkçiM7.7
Y. RegeerM7.2
Paderborn
N. NollG8.3
S. TiggesF8.1
S. MarinoF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Werder Bremen a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Werder Bremen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Werder Bremen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Werder Bremen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Paderborn have recorded no wins in their last five away fixtures. Werder Bremen have scored in four of their last five home matches but have kept zero clean sheets during that same recent period. Both squads carry injury concerns, with eight players unavailable for Werder Bremen and three missing from Paderborn's available list. Werder Bremen rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Werder Bremen won the most recent meeting 4-3 on 22 January 2022, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Paderborn's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Werder Bremen's implied win probability has fallen by 7.4 percentage points, while Paderborn's implied win probability has risen by 6.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Werder Bremen a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Werder Bremen win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Werder Bremen win
Latest market chance 53.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
60.8% → 53.4%
−7.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.1% → 23.1%
+1.0 pts
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 23.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
17.1% → 23.5%
+6.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Werder Bremen
Draw
Paderborn
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Werder BremenPaderborn
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
15th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
0.80
2.00
Goals/Game
0.60
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.40
15.7
Shots/Game
13.6
6.4
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Werder Bremen at home (4 matches) vs Paderborn away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.75
2.50
Goals/Game
0.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.25
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Werder Bremen
Home form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paderborn
Away form
D
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Werder Bremen Wins
2
Draws
1
Paderborn Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.6
Paderborn3 – 4Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen1 – 4Paderborn
Paderborn1 – 5Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0 – 1Paderborn
Paderborn2 – 2Werder Bremen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Werder Bremenvs
Paderborn
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.90
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 61.7%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 61.3%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Werder Bremen's 10 matches and 5 of Paderborn's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?