Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Head to Head, Prediction
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
4.83
Draw
4.41
Away Win
1.62
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Union Berlin edge defence, RB Leipzig edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Attack
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
RB Leipzig stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a RB Leipzig win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 19.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.5% → 19.7%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.8% → 21.6%
−0.2 pts
RB Leipzig win
Latest market chance 58.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
56.7% → 58.7%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
RB Leipzig
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinRB Leipzig
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
2.00
0.78
Goals/Game
3.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.44
10.2
Shots/Game
17.2
3.2
Shots on Target
6.9
Home vs Away Context
Union Berlin at home (6 matches) vs RB Leipzig away (4 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
0.75
1.17
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.75
17%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
RB Leipzig
Away form
L
L
L
L
W
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Union Berlin Wins
1
Draws
2
RB Leipzig Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
RB Leipzig3 – 1Union Berlin
Union Berlin3 – 1RB Leipzig
Union Berlin0 – 0RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig0 – 0Union Berlin
RB Leipzig2 – 0Union Berlin
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
RB Leipzig
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
2.80
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.6%→Latest 65.2%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.4%→Latest 62.2%−3.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of RB Leipzig's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?