Union Berlin vs FC Koln Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
An der Alten Försterei
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.76
Draw
3.52
Away Win
2.58
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Union Berlin
FC Koln
Janik Haberer (Tim Skarke) ⚽
10'
Zeno Van Den Bosch 🟨
37'
45+1'
🟨 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
53'
🟨 Paul Okon-Engstler
Kastriot Imeri 🟨
54'
69'
🟨 Linton Maina
Aljoscha Kemlein 🟨
76'
Derrick Köhn 🟨
77'
79'
⚽ Malek El Mala (Alessio Castro-Montes)
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
5
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
6
11
Fouls
10
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Union Berlin (3-4-1-2)
F. Rønnow
Z. Van Den Bosch
M. Friedrich
R. Khedira
J. Haberer
A. Schäfer
M. Aebischer
D. Köhn
K. Imeri
T. Skarke
Livan Burcu
FC Koln (4-4-2)
M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
J. Schmied
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
B. Sosa
L. Maina
Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
T. Krauß
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
M. Bülter
S. El Mala
Player Ratings ?
Union Berlin
J. HabererM7.2
R. KhediraD7.0
T. SkarkeF6.7
FC Koln
M. El MalaF8.0
A. Castro-MontesM7.3
T. KraußM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Union Berlin edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Union Berlin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Union Berlin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Union Berlin have secured two wins and drawn twice in their last five home outings, while FC Koln have suffered five straight defeats away from home. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept three clean sheets in that same span. Union Berlin face the absence of four players, whereas FC Koln will be without six men for this Bundesliga fixture. Union Berlin rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Union Berlin's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points, while FC Koln's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Union Berlin losing run
62%
FC Koln yellow cards after 75'
0
FC Koln points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Union Berlin
Union Berlin's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Union Berlin win as less likely than it did 9 days ago. FC Koln remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 35.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.0% → 35.4%
−2.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.1% → 27.1%
+1.0 pts
FC Koln win
Latest market chance 37.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.9% → 37.5%
+1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
FC Koln
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinFC Koln
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
0.86
Points/Game
1.14
0.86
Goals/Game
1.14
2.57
Conceded/Game
1.57
10.2
Shots/Game
15.2
3.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Union Berlin at home (6 matches) vs FC Koln away (6 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
0.33
1.17
Goals/Game
0.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.67
17%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
D
L
W
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
FC Koln
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Union Berlin Wins
2
Draws
2
FC Koln Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Union Berlin1 – 1FC Koln
Union Berlin2 – 2FC Koln
FC Koln0 – 1Union Berlin
FC Koln3 – 2Union Berlin
Union Berlin2 – 0FC Koln
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
FC Koln
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 55.0%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 59.8%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Union Berlin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?