Union Berlin vs Elversberg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
An der Alten Försterei
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.37
Draw
3.84
Away Win
2.85
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Union Berlin
Elversberg
Janik Haberer 🟨
7'
Tim Skarke 🟨
21'
Livan Burcu ⚽
81'
90+2'
🟨 Maurice Krattenmacher
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
19
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Goal
2
7
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
7
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Union Berlin (4-1-4-1)
F. Rønnow
J. Haberer
Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe
R. Khedira
A. Schäfer
Jeong Woo-Yeong
K. Imeri
M. Aebischer
T. Skarke
Elversberg (4-2-3-1)
N. Kristof
L. Sirch
L. Pinckert
M. Rohr
L. Günther
F. Keidel
Ł. Poręba
L. Petkov
Noah Darvich
T. Zimmerschied
N. Futkeu
Player Ratings ?
Union Berlin
Livan BurcuF7.9
Z. Van Den BoschD7.7
F. UduokhaiD7.6
Elversberg
N. KristofG7.8
M. RohrD7.2
L. PinckertD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.
Match Analysis
Union Berlin have recorded one win and two draws from their last five outings at home across seasons, while Elversberg remain unbeaten with a single victory and draw in just two away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have managed only one clean sheet during that same span. Union Berlin face four confirmed absences alongside one player under doubt, whereas Elversberg have two players unavailable with no doubts attached to their squad. Elversberg rate stronger on form. Over the 22-day comparison window, Union Berlin's implied win probability has fallen by 3.3 percentage points, while Elversberg's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Elversberg
Elversberg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Elversberg win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Union Berlin remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 40.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.3% → 40.7%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 25.3%
−0.5 pts
Elversberg win
Latest market chance 34.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
32.9% → 34.0%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
Elversberg
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinElversberg
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
8th
4
Games Played
4
0.25
Points/Game
1.75
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
4.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
10.2
Shots/Game
11.2
3.2
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Union Berlin at home (6 matches) vs Elversberg away (5 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
0.80
1.17
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.00
17%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elversberg
Away form
W
D
Unbeaten in last 2 away
Limited history — only 2 away fixtures on record for Elversberg.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.5
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/2
Scored in
last 2
last 2
1/2
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Union Berlin and Elversberg.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
Elversberg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.00
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.75
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/4
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/4
2/10
Failed to Score
1/4
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 63.1%+5.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 64.6%+4.8 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Elversberg have only 4 completed fixtures on record.
6 of Union Berlin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?