Union Berlin vs Dortmund Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
An der Alten Försterei
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.07
Draw
4.48
Away Win
1.62
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Union Berlin
Dortmund
1'
🟨 Ethan Nwaneri
7'
🟨 Waldemar Anton
14'
🟨 Serhou Guirassy
Janik Haberer 🟨
33'
Tom Rothe 🟨
35'
Tim Skarke 🟨
63'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
11
Total Shots
10
0
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Union Berlin (4-2-3-1)
F. Rønnow
J. Haberer
Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe
M. Aebischer
A. Schäfer
R. Khedira
Jeong Woo-Yeong
K. Imeri
T. Skarke
Dortmund (3-4-2-1)
G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou
W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson
J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha
D. Svensson
E. Nwaneri
M. Beier
S. Guirassy
Player Ratings ?
Union Berlin
A. SchäferM7.1
C. TrimmelD7.0
F. RønnowG6.9
Dortmund
Kouakou Joane GadouD7.3
J. RyersonM7.2
W. AntonD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Dortmund
Dortmund rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Dortmund an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Union Berlin have found consistency at home with two victories and two draws from their last five outings, while Dortmund have recorded three wins and two defeats in their away sample. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just two clean sheets within that same span. Union Berlin face four confirmed absences and one doubtful selection, whereas Dortmund are missing three players with no doubts attached to their squad. Dortmund rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Dortmund won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 24 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Union Berlin's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Union Berlin's implied win probability has risen by 3.0 percentage points, while Dortmund's implied win probability has fallen by 5.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Dortmund.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Dortmund unbeaten run
58%
Dortmund yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Dortmund
Dortmund's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Dortmund win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.4% → 18.4%
+3.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
19.5% → 21.9%
+2.4 pts
Dortmund win
Latest market chance 59.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
65.1% → 59.7%
−5.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
Dortmund
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinDortmund
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
2nd
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
2.60
1.00
Goals/Game
2.20
3.40
Conceded/Game
0.80
10.2
Shots/Game
15.3
3.2
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Union Berlin at home (6 matches) vs Dortmund away (4 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
2.00
1.17
Goals/Game
1.50
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
17%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
D
W
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dortmund
Away form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Union Berlin Wins
1
Draws
0
Dortmund Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.4
Union Berlin0 – 3Dortmund
Dortmund3 – 0Union Berlin
Dortmund6 – 0Union Berlin
Union Berlin2 – 1Dortmund
Union Berlin0 – 2Dortmund
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
Dortmund
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.20
2.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.7%→Latest 63.8%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.4%→Latest 60.8%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Union Berlin's 10 matches and 4 of Dortmund's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?