Schalke 04 vs Mainz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
VELTINS-Arena
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.10
Draw
3.63
Away Win
2.30
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Schalke 04
Mainz
24'
⚽ Phillip Tietz (Anthony Caci)
42'
🟨 Nadiem Amiri
45'
🟨 Kaishu Sano
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
9
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
1
12
Fouls
20
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
7
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Schalke 04 (3-4-2-1)
L. Karius
T. Becker
N. Katić
H. Kuruçay
A. Gantenbein
S. El-Faouzi
S. Tanaka
R. Gosens
K. Karaman
A. Aouchiche
E. Džeko
Mainz (3-5-2)
A. Schwolow
D. da Costa
S. Posch
K. Potulski
A. Caci
N. Amiri
K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung
P. Mwene
S. Becker
P. Tietz
Player Ratings ?
Schalke 04
L. KariusG7.4
H. KuruçayD6.8
M. WöberD6.6
Mainz
P. TietzF8.1
K. PotulskiD7.1
A. SchwolowG7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Schalke 04 edge head-to-head, Mainz edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Schalke 04 stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mainz arrives with an impressive away record of four wins and a single draw from their last five outings, while Schalke 04 remain unbeaten at home with two victories and three draws in the same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches but have managed only two clean sheets during that identical period. Schalke 04 face one confirmed absence and one player under doubt, whereas Mainz will be without four of their squad members for the contest. Mainz rate stronger on form and attack, while Schalke 04 rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Schalke 04 won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 5 May 2023, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Mainz's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Schalke 04's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points, while Mainz's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Mainz yellow cards after 75'
13
Mainz points from last 5 matches
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Schalke 04
Schalke 04's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Schalke 04 win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. Mainz remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Schalke 04 win
Latest market chance 31.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
35.5% → 31.2%
−4.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.8%
+0.1 pts
Mainz win
Latest market chance 42.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.7% → 42.0%
+4.3 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+4.5+2.250−2.25Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Schalke 04
Draw
Mainz
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Schalke 04
Mainz
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
9th
5
Games Played
5
1.00
Points/Game
1.40
0.80
Goals/Game
2.60
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.00
11.0
Shots/Game
16.0
3.2
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Schalke 04 at home (4 matches) vs Mainz away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.80
0.00
Goals/Game
2.40
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.20
0%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Schalke 04
Home form
W
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Mainz
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Schalke 04 Wins
2
Draws
3
Mainz Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
2023-05-052022-2023
Mainz2 – 3Schalke 04
2022-11-092022-2023
Schalke 041 – 0Mainz
2021-03-052020-2021
Schalke 040 – 0Mainz
2020-11-072020-2021
Mainz2 – 2Schalke 04
2020-02-162019-2020
Mainz0 – 0Schalke 04
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Schalke 04
vs
Mainz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
79.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
57.9%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
37.4%
BTTSBoth teams score
61.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 58.0%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 8 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.1%→Latest 61.6%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 21Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 17
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 26 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Schalke 04's 10 matches and 5 of Mainz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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