Paderborn vs Stuttgart Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.06
Draw
4.85
Away Win
1.58
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Paderborn
Stuttgart
25'
⚽ Jeffrey Julian Gaston Chabot (Angelo Stiller)
Marvin Pieringer 🟨
45'
83'
⚽ Chris Führich (Angelo Stiller)
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
24
Total Shots
18
6
Shots on Goal
8
7
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Paderborn (3-5-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
M. Pieringer
S. Marino
Stuttgart (3-4-2-1)
D. Seimen
R. Hendriks
J. Chabot
M. Mittelstädt
J. Vagnoman
A. Karazor
A. Stiller
C. Führich
J. Leweling
D. Undav
E. Demirović
Player Ratings ?
Paderborn
S. TiggesF7.5
M. HansenD7.1
G. VidovićM7.1
Stuttgart
A. StillerM8.6
J. ChabotD8.4
C. FührichM8.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stuttgart
Stuttgart rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Stuttgart a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stuttgart have struggled away from home recently with no wins in their last five outings, while Paderborn have managed just a solitary victory in that same span at the top end of the table. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run, leaving them vulnerable defensively. Stuttgart rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2015. Over the 22-day comparison window, Paderborn's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Stuttgart's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stuttgart a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Stuttgart
Stuttgart's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Stuttgart win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 19.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
20.6% → 19.0%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
21.3% → 20.2%
−1.1 pts
Stuttgart win
Latest market chance 60.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
58.0% → 60.8%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paderborn
Draw
Stuttgart
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PaderbornStuttgart
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
15th
4
Games Played
4
1.00
Points/Game
0.75
0.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.25
13.6
Shots/Game
16.2
3.4
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
Paderborn at home (5 matches) vs Stuttgart away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
1.20
1.20
Goals/Game
1.60
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.00
40%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paderborn
Home form
L
L
L
L
W
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stuttgart
Away form
L
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paderborn Wins
0
Draws
1
Stuttgart Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.5
Paderborn1 – 2Stuttgart
Stuttgart0 – 0Paderborn
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paderbornvs
Stuttgart
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.40
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.6%→Latest 71.7%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 66.6%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Paderborn's 10 matches and 6 of Stuttgart's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?