Paderborn vs Hamburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.31
Draw
3.62
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Paderborn
Hamburg
53'
🟨 Shafiq Nandja
Jano ter Horst 🟨
58'
87'
🟨 Albert Sambi Lokonga
Rayan Philippe (Felix Götze) ⚽
88'
89'
🟨 Merlin Polzin
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
16
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Paderborn (3-5-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
S. Marino
S. Tigges
Hamburg (3-5-2)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
S. Nandja
S. Bornauw
W. Omari
Z. El Ouahdi
M. Adeline
B. Nadir
M. Muheim
D. Møller Wolfe
Y. Poulsen
Fábio Vieira
Player Ratings ?
Paderborn
T. SchellerD7.9
R. PhilippeF7.6
F. GötzeD7.3
Hamburg
Daniel Heuer FernandesG7.0
S. BornauwD6.9
Y. PoulsenF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Paderborn edge head-to-head, Hamburg edge recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paderborn stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamburg have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away appearances, whereas Paderborn have suffered four defeats in their corresponding home sample. Paderborn have scored in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Five players are unavailable for Paderborn, while two teammates face similar absence concerns for Hamburg ahead of the Bundesliga fixture. Hamburg rate stronger on form, while Paderborn rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Paderborn won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 2 March 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Hamburg's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Paderborn's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Hamburg's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hamburg losing run
3
Paderborn points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Hamburg
Hamburg's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hamburg win as less likely than it did 12 days ago. Paderborn remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.7% → 42.8%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 25.2%
+0.6 pts
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 32.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.7% → 32.0%
−1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paderborn
Draw
Hamburg
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PaderbornHamburg
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
9th
6
Games Played
6
0.83
Points/Game
1.50
0.83
Goals/Game
1.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.50
13.6
Shots/Game
11.7
3.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Paderborn at home (5 matches) vs Hamburg away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.50
1.20
Goals/Game
0.83
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.67
40%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paderborn
Home form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hamburg
Away form
W
D
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paderborn Wins
3
Draws
2
Hamburg Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Paderborn2 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg2 – 2Paderborn
Paderborn1 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg1 – 2Paderborn
Hamburg2 – 2Paderborn
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paderbornvs
Hamburg
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.30
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.6%→Latest 60.2%−4.4 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.6%→Latest 62.5%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Paderborn's 10 matches and 4 of Hamburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?