M'gladbach vs Paderborn Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Borussia-Park
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.01
Draw
3.96
Away Win
3.51
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
M'gladbach
Paderborn
29'
🟨 Tom Baack
Daiki Hashioka 🟨
41'
Fabio Cristian Chiarodia 🟨
50'
84'
🟨 Tjark Scheller
90'
🟨 Laurin Ulrich
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
12
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
7
10
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
M'gladbach (3-4-2-1)
D. Batz
D. Hashioka
P. Sander
F. Chiarodia
J. Scally
Z. Uno
F. Neuhaus
L. Ullrich
R. Hack
W. Mohya
S. Machino
Paderborn (3-1-4-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
S. Castañeda
L. Curda
T. Baack
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
M. Pieringer
S. Marino
Player Ratings ?
M'gladbach
D. BatzG8.0
F. NeuhausM6.9
P. SanderD6.8
Paderborn
N. NollG7.3
M. HansenD7.2
R. PhilippeF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. M'gladbach edge attack and head-to-head, Paderborn edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paderborn slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
M'gladbach stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paderborn slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
M'gladbach stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
M'gladbach have suffered four defeats from their last five home outings, while Paderborn remain winless in three of their last five away fixtures with two draws. The host side have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just one clean sheet from that same sample. Seven players face selection issues for the hosts, whereas Paderborn carry five confirmed absences alongside two doubtful options. Paderborn hold a slight advantage in form and defence, while M'gladbach rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. Over the 8-day comparison window, M'gladbach's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points, while Paderborn's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
M'gladbach losing run
48%
M'gladbach yellow cards after 75'
2
Paderborn points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from M'gladbach
M'gladbach's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a M'gladbach win as less likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
M'gladbach win
Latest market chance 47.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
50.6% → 47.7%
−2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.4% → 24.4%
+1.0 pts
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 27.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.0% → 27.9%
+1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
M'gladbach
Draw
Paderborn
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
M'gladbachPaderborn
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
13th
7
Games Played
7
0.43
Points/Game
1.14
1.57
Goals/Game
0.86
3.14
Conceded/Game
1.29
15.3
Shots/Game
13.6
4.8
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
M'gladbach at home (5 matches) vs Paderborn away (4 matches)
0.20
Points/Game
0.75
1.60
Goals/Game
0.50
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
M'gladbach
Home form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paderborn
Away form
L
L
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
M'gladbach Wins
5
Draws
0
Paderborn Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.2
Paderborn1 – 3M'gladbach
M'gladbach2 – 0Paderborn
M'gladbach2 – 0Paderborn
Paderborn1 – 2M'gladbach
Paderborn2 – 3M'gladbach
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
M'gladbachvs
Paderborn
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.60
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.4%→Latest 63.4%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.0%→Latest 64.5%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Paderborn's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?