Mainz vs Werder Bremen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MEWA Arena
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.74
Draw
4.09
Away Win
4.61
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Mainz
Werder Bremen
7'
⚽ (P) Niclas Füllkrug
25'
⚽ (P) Niclas Füllkrug
Anthony Caci (Sheraldo Becker) ⚽
33'
38'
🟨 Ludovit Reis
61'
⚽ Ludovit Reis (Marco Grüll)
Lee Jae-Sung (Anthony Caci) ⚽
63'
Phillipp Mwene 🟨
69'
Alexander Schwolow 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
18
Total Shots
17
8
Shots on Goal
8
6
Corner Kicks
7
7
Fouls
5
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Mainz (3-5-2)
A. Schwolow
D. da Costa
S. Posch
K. Potulski
A. Caci
Lee Jae-Sung
K. Sano
N. Amiri
P. Mwene
S. Becker
P. Tietz
Werder Bremen (4-2-3-1)
K. Hein
Arthur
A. Pieper
M. Friedl
O. Deman
L. Reis
Y. Regeer
M. Weiser
Chuky San José
M. Grüll
N. Füllkrug
Player Ratings ?
Mainz
A. CaciM8.6
S. BeckerF7.4
Lee Jae-SungM7.4
Werder Bremen
L. ReisM8.2
K. HeinG7.6
N. FüllkrugF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mainz edge recent form and attack, Werder Bremen edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Werder Bremen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen have recorded three draws and two defeats in their last five away outings, while Mainz have suffered four losses with just one draw from their last five home fixtures. Mainz have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have only kept a clean sheet once during that same period. Mainz face potential disruption with two players out and two more doubtful, whereas Werder Bremen have eight confirmed absences but no doubts over their squad. Mainz rate stronger on form and attack, while Werder Bremen hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Mainz won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 15 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Werder Bremen's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Mainz's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Werder Bremen's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Mainz points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Mainz
Mainz's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mainz win as more likely than it did 12 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mainz win
Latest market chance 54.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
53.3% → 54.7%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 23.0%
−0.4 pts
Werder Bremen win
Latest market chance 22.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.3% → 22.3%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mainz
Draw
Werder Bremen
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MainzWerder Bremen
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
8th
6
Games Played
6
1.67
Points/Game
1.50
2.33
Goals/Game
2.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
16.0
Shots/Game
15.7
5.2
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Mainz at home (5 matches) vs Werder Bremen away (6 matches)
0.20
Points/Game
1.00
1.40
Goals/Game
1.50
2.40
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mainz
Home form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Werder Bremen
Away form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mainz Wins
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Werder Bremen0 – 2Mainz
Mainz1 – 1Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen1 – 0Mainz
Mainz1 – 2Werder Bremen
Mainz0 – 1Werder Bremen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mainzvs
Werder Bremen
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 60.8%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 60.9%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Mainz's 10 matches and 3 of Werder Bremen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?