Mainz vs Leverkusen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MEWA Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.04
Draw
4.01
Away Win
2.20
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 4
Match Events ?
Mainz
Leverkusen
5'
⚽ Robert Andrich
9'
⚽ Patrik Schick (Aleix García)
Phillip Tietz 🟨
20'
Anthony Caci ⚽
33'
Sheraldo Becker 🟨
35'
Anthony Caci (Nadiem Amiri) ⚽
42'
55'
⚽ Jarell Quansah
65'
⚽ Moussa Diaby (Afonso Moreira)
Lee Jae-Sung 🟨
76'
Benedict Hollerbach ⚽
90+2'
90+3'
🟨 Jarell Quansah
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
23
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Mainz (3-5-2)
A. Schwolow
S. Posch
F. Gruber
K. Potulski
A. Caci
E. Martel
K. Sano
N. Amiri
P. Mwene
P. Tietz
S. Becker
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez
R. Andrich
Aleix García
M. Diaby
I. Maza
Afonso Moreira
P. Schick
Player Ratings ?
Mainz
A. CaciM9.1
N. AmiriM7.5
B. HollerbachF7.2
Leverkusen
P. SchickF8.2
Aleix GarcíaM7.7
R. AndrichM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leverkusen edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leverkusen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leverkusen have secured two victories and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Mainz have endured four defeats with just one stalemate during their corresponding home sample. Mainz have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in that same period. Both sides carry significant squad concerns, with Mainz facing three confirmed absences and three players under doubt, while Leverkusen have three certain outsidess alongside one doubtful selection. Leverkusen rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Mainz's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Leverkusen's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
56%
Mainz yellow cards after 75'
1
Mainz points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mainz win
Latest market chance 32.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
33.7% → 32.5%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.0% → 24.9%
−0.1 pts
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 42.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.2% → 42.6%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mainz
Draw
Leverkusen
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MainzLeverkusen
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
6th
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
1.75
2.50
Goals/Game
2.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
16.0
Shots/Game
18.3
5.2
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
Mainz at home (5 matches) vs Leverkusen away (6 matches)
0.20
Points/Game
1.17
1.40
Goals/Game
1.67
2.40
Conceded/Game
2.50
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mainz
Home form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leverkusen
Away form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mainz Wins
0
Draws
2
Leverkusen Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Leverkusen1 – 1Mainz
Mainz3 – 4Leverkusen
Mainz2 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen1 – 0Mainz
Leverkusen2 – 1Mainz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mainzvs
Leverkusen
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.8%→Latest 65.4%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.3%→Latest 66.6%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Mainz's 10 matches and 6 of Leverkusen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?