Mainz vs Bayern Munich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MEWA Arena
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
7.25
Draw
6.69
Away Win
1.34
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Mainz
Bayern Munich
14'
⚽ Joshua Kimmich (Harry Kane)
57'
⚽ Lennart Karl (Harry Kane)
76'
🟨 Konrad Laimer
Phillip Tietz (Benedict Hollerbach) ⚽
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
31%
Ball Possession
69%
10
Total Shots
26
1
Shots on Goal
9
7
Corner Kicks
8
8
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Mainz (3-5-2)
R. Zentner
D. da Costa
F. Gruber
K. Potulski
A. Caci
N. Amiri
K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung
S. Widmer
R. Königsdörffer
S. Becker
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
M. Neuer
K. Laimer
D. Upamecano
J. Tah
J. Stanišić
J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović
M. Olise
L. Karl
N. Brown
H. Kane
Player Ratings ?
Mainz
P. TietzF7.3
R. ZentnerG7.1
R. KönigsdörfferF6.7
Bayern Munich
H. KaneF8.6
J. KimmichM8.2
L. KarlM7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Bayern Munich an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bayern Munich arrive at this Bundesliga fixture with an impressive away record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Mainz have struggled significantly at home with just one draw and four defeats in the same span. Despite scoring in four of their last five matches at home, Mainz have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that same period. Bayern Munich rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Bayern Munich won the most recent meeting 4-3 on 25 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Mainz's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 5.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Mainz's implied win probability has fallen by 4.4 percentage points, while Bayern Munich's implied win probability has risen by 6.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Bayern Munich.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bayern Munich win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mainz win
Latest market chance 12.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
17.2% → 12.8%
−4.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
17.6% → 15.5%
−2.1 pts
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 71.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
65.2% → 71.7%
+6.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mainz
Draw
Bayern Munich
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MainzBayern Munich
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
1st
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
2.25
2.12
Goals/Game
3.38
2.12
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.0
Shots/Game
23.6
5.2
Shots on Target
9.4
Home vs Away Context
Mainz at home (5 matches) vs Bayern Munich away (6 matches)
0.20
Points/Game
2.33
1.40
Goals/Game
2.00
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mainz
Home form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bayern Munich
Away form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mainz Wins
1
Draws
1
Bayern Munich Wins
3
Avg Goals
5.2
Mainz3 – 4Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich2 – 2Mainz
Bayern Munich3 – 0Mainz
Mainz2 – 1Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich8 – 1Mainz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mainzvs
Bayern Munich
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
3.50
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 77.6%→Latest 75.2%−2.4 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 70.8%→Latest 63.6%−7.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Mainz's 10 matches and 1 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?