Leverkusen vs Paderborn Head to Head | Bundesliga

Match Prediction

Data favours

Leverkusen

Leverkusen rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Leverkusen a slight edge.

Leads 3 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Leverkusen stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Leverkusen stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Closely matched

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Leverkusen stronger

HomeAway

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Little change in the market

The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.

Movement strength: Steady

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Leverkusen win

Latest market chance 74.9%

Steady

Market view unchanged

74.8% → 74.9%

+0.1 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 14.8%

Steady

Market view unchanged

14.9% → 14.8%

−0.1 pts

Paderborn win

Latest market chance 10.3%

Steady

Market view unchanged

10.3% → 10.3%

±0.0 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

7 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Leverkusen

Draw

Paderborn

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Leverkusen

Paderborn

Season Profile

This season

5th

League Position

13th

Games Played

1.78

Points/Game

1.11

2.22

Goals/Game

0.89

1.89

Conceded/Game

1.22

18.3

Shots/Game

13.6

6.0

Shots on Target

3.4

Home vs Away Context

Leverkusen at home (5 matches) vs Paderborn away (4 matches)

2.40

Points/Game

0.75

2.40

Goals/Game

0.50

1.20

Conceded/Game

1.25

80%

Win Rate

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Leverkusen

Home form

Won 4 of last 5 at home

2.4

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Paderborn

Away form

Winless in last 5 away

1 of these match from last season.

0.8

Goals scored
per match

1.6

Goals conceded
per match

2/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Leverkusen Wins

Draws

Paderborn Wins

Avg Goals

4.2

2020-01-192019-2020

Paderborn1 – 4Leverkusen

2019-08-172019-2020

Leverkusen3 – 2Paderborn

2015-03-082014-2015

Paderborn0 – 3Leverkusen

2014-10-042014-2015

Leverkusen2 – 2Paderborn

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Leverkusen

Paderborn

Recent Scoring Profile

2.00

Goals scored / game

1.00

1.80

Goals conceded / game

1.40

9/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

6/10

Both Teams Scored

4/10

2/10

Failed to Score

5/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

86.8%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

72.2%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

52.6%

BTTSBoth teams score

57.1%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 74.7%→Latest 72.5%−2.2 pts

Notable move away from 3+ goals

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 19 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 60.3%→Latest 57.1%−3.2 pts

Strong move away from both teams scoring

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 19 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

1 of Paderborn's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

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Leverkusen vs Paderborn Head to Head, Prediction