Leverkusen vs Freiburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
BayArena
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.65
Draw
4.59
Away Win
4.86
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Leverkusen
Freiburg
14'
⚽ Derry Lionel Scherhant (Philipp Treu)
Ibrahim Maza (Patrik Schick) ⚽
19'
39'
🟨 Philipp Treu
Patrik Schick (Ibrahim Maza) ⚽
76'
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
5
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez
Aleix García
E. Fernández
M. Diaby
I. Maza
Afonso Moreira
P. Schick
Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
M. Backhaus
P. Treu
M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
Y. Engelhardt
J. Beste
K. Goto
D. Scherhant
I. Matanović
Player Ratings ?
Leverkusen
P. SchickF8.7
I. MazaM8.5
M. FlekkenG6.9
Freiburg
D. ScherhantM8.1
P. LienhartD6.9
J. MakengoD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leverkusen edge attack and head-to-head, Freiburg edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Freiburg slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leverkusen have secured three victories and a draw from their last five home outings, while Freiburg have managed just two wins away in that same span. The hosts have found the net in every one of their recent five home matches but have conceded goals in three of those contests as they keep only two clean sheets in that period. Leverkusen carry five confirmed absences and one player under doubt, whereas Freiburg face no certain outcasts though they also have a single doubtful case to monitor before kickoff. Freiburg rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Leverkusen rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Leverkusen's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Freiburg's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 58.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
55.3% → 58.2%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
22.9% → 21.5%
−1.4 pts
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 20.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.8% → 20.2%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leverkusen
Draw
Freiburg
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LeverkusenFreiburg
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
3rd
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
2.60
2.80
Goals/Game
2.80
1.60
Conceded/Game
0.80
18.3
Shots/Game
15.9
6.0
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Leverkusen at home (5 matches) vs Freiburg away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.40
2.40
Goals/Game
1.40
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.40
80%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Leverkusen
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Freiburg
Away form
L
L
W
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leverkusen Wins
3
Draws
2
Freiburg Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.2
Leverkusen2 – 1Freiburg
Freiburg3 – 3Leverkusen
Leverkusen2 – 0Freiburg
Freiburg2 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen5 – 1Freiburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leverkusenvs
Freiburg
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.3%→Latest 65.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 62.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Leverkusen's 10 matches and 3 of Freiburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?