Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Prezero Arena
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.05
Draw
4.12
Away Win
2.16
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Hoffenheim
Leverkusen
40'
🟨 Equi Fernández
Alexander Prass 🟨
45'
58'
🟨 Patrik Schick
Leon Avdullahu 🟨
67'
75'
🟨 Facundo Medina
Andrej Kramarić ⚽ (P)
79'
Adam Daghim 🟨
82'
Alexander Prass (Andrej Kramarić) ⚽
89'
90'
🟨 Carles Martínez Novell
Alexander Prass 🟥
90+1'
90+3'
🟨 Loïc Badé
Max Moerstedt ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
20
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Goal
1
5
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Hoffenheim (4-2-3-1)
O. Baumann
V. Coufal
O. Kabak
K. Machida
M. Rots
L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
A. Prass
A. Hložek
A. Daghim
F. Asllani
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez
Aleix García
E. Fernández
M. Diaby
I. Maza
N. Tella
P. Schick
Player Ratings ?
Hoffenheim
A. KramarićF7.7
Max MoerstedtF7.4
O. KabakD7.2
Leverkusen
Aleix GarcíaM7.2
Afonso MoreiraF6.6
E. TapsobaD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hoffenheim edge head-to-head, Leverkusen edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leverkusen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides have shown mixed form in their last five matches, with Leverkusen recording two wins and one draw away from home while Hoffenheim managed two victories and a single draw at home. Hoffenheim have found the net in all five of their recent home outings but have only kept just one clean sheet in that same span. There are significant injury concerns for both squads, with Hoffenheim facing three confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player while Leverkusen must cope with five definite out-counts and another uncertain case. Leverkusen rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Hoffenheim rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Hoffenheim won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 17 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Leverkusen's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Hoffenheim's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Leverkusen's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
62%
Leverkusen yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hoffenheim win as more likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Leverkusen remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hoffenheim win
Latest market chance 32.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.4% → 32.8%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.0%
−0.5 pts
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 44.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.0% → 44.2%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hoffenheim
Draw
Leverkusen
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HoffenheimLeverkusen

Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
4th
6
Games Played
6
1.00
Points/Game
2.17
1.83
Goals/Game
2.67
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
17.6
Shots/Game
18.3
5.2
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
Hoffenheim at home (7 matches) vs Leverkusen away (6 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
1.17
2.29
Goals/Game
1.67
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.50
71%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Hoffenheim
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Leverkusen
Away form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hoffenheim Wins
3
Draws
0
Leverkusen Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Hoffenheim3 – 0Leverkusen
Hoffenheim1 – 0Leverkusen
Leverkusen1 – 2Hoffenheim
Leverkusen3 – 1Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim1 – 4Leverkusen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hoffenheimvs
Leverkusen

Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.70
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 70.2%→Latest 71.8%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 70.1%→Latest 71.3%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Hoffenheim's 10 matches and 2 of Leverkusen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?