Hoffenheim vs Hamburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Prezero Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.43
Draw
4.99
Away Win
7.18
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Hoffenheim
Hamburg
12'
⚽ Yussuf Poulsen
Sebastiaan Bornauw ⚽ (OG)
45+6'
Bambasé Conté (Fisnik Asllani) ⚽
53'
Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior 🟨
55'
Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior 🟥
65'
Leon Avdullahu 🟨
80'
83'
⚽ Terem Moffi (Miro Muheim)
90+4'
⚽ Miro Muheim
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
17
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Hoffenheim (4-2-3-1)
O. Baumann
V. Coufal
O. Kabak
K. Machida
Bernardo
L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
B. Conté
F. Asllani
A. Daghim
T. Lemperle
Hamburg (3-4-2-1)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
S. Bornauw
W. Omari
D. Møller Wolfe
A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
L. Lemke
Fábio Vieira
M. Adeline
Y. Poulsen
Player Ratings ?
Hoffenheim
B. ContéM7.7
V. CoufalD7.0
A. KramarićF6.7
Hamburg
T. MoffiF8.2
Y. PoulsenF8.0
M. MuheimD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hoffenheim a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hoffenheim have secured three victories in their last five home outings, whereas Hamburg have managed just a solitary win across their recent away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five of their most recent home matches but have kept only one clean sheet during that same span. Hoffenheim face two players with match doubts while Hamburg have four confirmed absences and one player under doubt ahead of the clash. Hoffenheim rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hoffenheim won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Hamburg's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Hoffenheim's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points, while Hamburg's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Hoffenheim a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hoffenheim win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hoffenheim win
Latest market chance 66.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
68.9% → 66.2%
−2.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
18.5% → 19.7%
+1.2 pts
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 14.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
12.6% → 14.1%
+1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hoffenheim
Draw
Hamburg
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HoffenheimHamburg
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
16th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
0.75
1.75
Goals/Game
0.50
2.50
Conceded/Game
3.25
17.6
Shots/Game
11.7
5.2
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Hoffenheim at home (7 matches) vs Hamburg away (6 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.50
2.29
Goals/Game
0.83
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.67
71%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hoffenheim
Home form
W
D
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hamburg
Away form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hoffenheim Wins
3
Draws
0
Hamburg Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Hamburg1 – 2Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim4 – 1Hamburg
Hoffenheim2 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg3 – 0Hoffenheim
Hamburg2 – 1Hoffenheim
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hoffenheimvs
Hamburg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.60
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.9%→Latest 67.1%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.9%→Latest 59.4%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Hoffenheim's 10 matches and 6 of Hamburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?