Hamburg vs Stuttgart Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Volksparkstadion
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.28
Draw
4.06
Away Win
1.80
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Warmed Omari 🟨
54'
Nicolás Capaldo 🟨
82'
Otto Emerson Stange 🟨
85'
Miro Muheim (Zakaria El Ouahdi) ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
14
Total Shots
24
3
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
9
12
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Hamburg (3-5-2)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
S. Bornauw
W. Omari
D. Møller Wolfe
M. Adeline
B. Nadir
M. Muheim
L. Lemke
Fábio Vieira
Y. Poulsen
Stuttgart (4-2-3-1)
D. Seimen
J. Vagnoman
Finn Jeltsch
J. Chabot
R. Hendriks
A. Karazor
A. Stiller
B. El Khannouss
D. Undav
J. Leweling
E. Demirović
Player Ratings ?
Hamburg
M. MuheimM8.2
S. BornauwD7.7
W. OmariD7.5
Stuttgart
Finn JeltschD7.6
R. HendriksD7.5
J. ChabotD7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hamburg edge recent form, Stuttgart edge attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamburg slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stuttgart have recorded just one victory from their last five away fixtures, while Hamburg have secured two wins in their last five home outings. Hamburg have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Three Hamburg players are unavailable alongside two doubts, while Stuttgart face two confirmed absences and four doubtfuls ahead of the match. Hamburg hold a slight advantage in form, while Stuttgart rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Stuttgart won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Hamburg's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Hamburg's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points, while Stuttgart's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Hamburg
Hamburg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hamburg win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. Stuttgart remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 24.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.1% → 24.1%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.3% → 22.3%
±0.0 pts
Stuttgart win
Latest market chance 53.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
55.6% → 53.6%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamburg
Draw
Stuttgart
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamburgStuttgart
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
12th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
1.20
1.00
Goals/Game
1.60
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
11.7
Shots/Game
16.2
3.9
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
Hamburg at home (4 matches) vs Stuttgart away (5 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.20
1.50
Goals/Game
1.60
1.75
Conceded/Game
2.00
75%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hamburg
Home form
D
L
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stuttgart
Away form
D
D
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamburg Wins
2
Draws
1
Stuttgart Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.4
Stuttgart4 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg2 – 1Stuttgart
Stuttgart3 – 2Hamburg
Hamburg6 – 2Stuttgart
Stuttgart1 – 1Hamburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamburgvs
Stuttgart
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.40
Goals conceded / game
2.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.6%→Latest 67.5%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.0%→Latest 66.9%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Hamburg's 10 matches and 5 of Stuttgart's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?