Hamburg vs M'gladbach Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Volksparkstadion
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.48
Draw
3.70
Away Win
2.80
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Hamburg
M'gladbach
Miro Muheim (Albert Sambi Lokonga) ⚽
11'
38'
🟨 Ko Itakura
44'
⚽ Robin Hack (Joe Scally)
49'
🟥 Ko Itakura
Shafiq Nandja (Albert Grönbaek) ⚽
59'
Albert Grönbaek ⚽
70'
90+2'
🟨 Jens Castrop
Warmed Omari 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
18
Total Shots
19
9
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
3
6
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Hamburg (3-5-2)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
S. Nandja
S. Bornauw
W. Omari
Z. El Ouahdi
M. Adeline
A. Sambi Lokonga
M. Muheim
D. Møller Wolfe
P. Daka
A. Grønbæk
M'gladbach (3-4-2-1)
D. Batz
K. Itakura
P. Sander
F. Chiarodia
J. Scally
Z. Uno
F. Neuhaus
L. Ullrich
R. Hack
W. Mohya
S. Machino
Player Ratings ?
Hamburg
A. GrønbækF9.0
M. MuheimM7.9
A. Sambi LokongaM7.2
M'gladbach
R. HackM7.5
J. ScallyM6.7
I. LidbergF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hamburg edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, M'gladbach edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
M'gladbach slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hamburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamburg stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamburg have secured three wins from their last five home outings, while M'gladbach have recorded two victories in their corresponding away sample during this period. At home, Hamburg have found the net in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet in that same span. Both sides carry significant squad concerns ahead of kickoff, with Hamburg having four players out and two doubtful, while M'gladbach have four confirmed absences alongside five doubts. Hamburg rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while M'gladbach hold a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 17 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 7-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Hamburg remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 39.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
39.8% → 39.1%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.5% → 26.3%
+0.8 pts
M'gladbach win
Latest market chance 34.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
34.7% → 34.6%
−0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamburg
Draw
M'gladbach
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamburgM'gladbach

Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
0.50
0.88
Goals/Game
1.38
2.38
Conceded/Game
2.75
11.7
Shots/Game
15.3
3.9
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Hamburg at home (4 matches) vs M'gladbach away (7 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
0.86
1.50
Goals/Game
1.29
1.75
Conceded/Game
2.71
75%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Hamburg
Home form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

M'gladbach
Away form
L
L
L
W
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamburg Wins
2
Draws
2
M'gladbach Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Hamburg0 – 0M'gladbach
M'gladbach0 – 0Hamburg
Hamburg2 – 1M'gladbach
M'gladbach3 – 1Hamburg
Hamburg2 – 1M'gladbach
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamburgvs
M'gladbach

Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.30
Goals conceded / game
2.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 58.3%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.4%→Latest 61.4%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Hamburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?