Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Europa-Park-Stadion
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.65
Draw
3.96
Away Win
5.66
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Freiburg
Schalke 04
Maximilian Eggestein ⚽
10'
30'
⚽ Kenan Karaman (Adrian Tobias Gantenbein)
Yuito Suzuki 🟨
49'
Matthias Ginter 🟨
57'
Yuito Suzuki 🟥
64'
Keisuke Goto (Vincenzo Grifo) ⚽
85'
87'
🟨 Hwang Hee-Chan
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
10
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
5
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
M. Backhaus
P. Treu
M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
Y. Engelhardt
J. Beste
Y. Suzuki
D. Scherhant
I. Matanović
Schalke 04 (3-4-2-1)
L. Karius
H. Kuruçay
N. Katić
M. Wöber
A. Gantenbein
S. El-Faouzi
S. Tanaka
R. Gosens
M. Sylla
K. Karaman
J. Adamu
Player Ratings ?
Freiburg
M. EggesteinM7.8
K. GotoF7.7
M. GinterD6.9
Schalke 04
H. KuruçayD7.1
M. WöberD6.9
A. GantenbeinM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Freiburg
Freiburg rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Freiburg a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Freiburg arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings with four wins and a draw, while Schalke 04 have secured just two victories from the same number of away fixtures. The Black-Reds have found the net in all five of their home games recently but have only managed a single clean sheet during that identical span. Both squads carry minor injury concerns ahead of kickoff, with Freiburg having two players unavailable and Schalke 04 missing just one man from their matchday squad. Freiburg rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Freiburg won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 23 April 2023, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Schalke 04's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Freiburg's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Schalke 04's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Freiburg a strong edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Freiburg
Freiburg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Freiburg win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 58.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
57.0% → 58.1%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.3% → 23.9%
−0.4 pts
Schalke 04 win
Latest market chance 18.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.6% → 18.0%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Freiburg
Draw
Schalke 04
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FreiburgSchalke 04
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
12th
4
Games Played
4
2.50
Points/Game
1.25
3.00
Goals/Game
0.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.9
Shots/Game
11.0
5.2
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Freiburg at home (8 matches) vs Schalke 04 away (7 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
0.57
2.38
Goals/Game
1.00
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.71
75%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Freiburg
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Schalke 04
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Freiburg Wins
5
Draws
0
Schalke 04 Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Freiburg2 – 1Schalke 04
Freiburg4 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 040 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg4 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 040 – 2Freiburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Freiburgvs
Schalke 04
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 58.0%−3.3 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 56.8%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Freiburg's 10 matches and 5 of Schalke 04's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?