Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Europa-Park-Stadion
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.42
Draw
5.50
Away Win
1.43
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
16'
⚽ Dayot Upamecano (Michael Olise)
Lucas Höler 🟨
25'
42'
⚽ Serge Gnabry (Nathaniel Brown)
Jan-Niklas Beste 🟨
55'
65'
🟨 Jonathan Tah
Tom Bischof ⚽ (OG)
82'
Maximilian Eggestein 🟨
85'
90+5'
⚽ Michael Olise
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
16
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Goal
9
5
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
M. Backhaus
P. Treu
M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
P. Osterhage
J. Beste
Y. Suzuki
D. Scherhant
L. Höler
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)
J. Urbig
J. Stanišić
D. Upamecano
J. Tah
N. Brown
K. Laimer
T. Bischof
M. Olise
L. Karl
S. Gnabry
H. Kane
Player Ratings ?
Freiburg
I. MatanovićF6.9
M. BackhausG6.9
M. GinterD6.6
Bayern Munich
M. OliseM9.0
S. GnabryM7.9
D. UpamecanoD7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Bayern Munich a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Freiburg arrive at home with a perfect record from their last five outings, while Bayern Munich have also remained unbeaten in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same stretch. Freiburg face two players with availability doubts, whereas Bayern Munich will field a squad missing seven individuals from their matchday roster. Bayern Munich rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Bayern Munich won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 4 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Freiburg's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Freiburg's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while Bayern Munich's implied win probability has fallen by 4.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Bayern Munich a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Bayern Munich win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 15.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
11.7% → 15.0%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
16.0% → 17.1%
+1.1 pts
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 67.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
72.3% → 67.9%
−4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Freiburg
Draw
Bayern Munich
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FreiburgBayern Munich
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
2nd
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
2.33
2.50
Goals/Game
3.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.83
15.9
Shots/Game
23.6
5.2
Shots on Target
9.4
Home vs Away Context
Freiburg at home (8 matches) vs Bayern Munich away (6 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
2.33
2.38
Goals/Game
2.00
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.00
75%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Freiburg
Home form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bayern Munich
Away form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Freiburg Wins
0
Draws
0
Bayern Munich Wins
5
Avg Goals
4.4
Freiburg1 – 3Bayern Munich
Freiburg2 – 3Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich6 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg1 – 2Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich2 – 0Freiburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Freiburgvs
Bayern Munich
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
3.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.00
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 76.4%→Latest 73.8%−2.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.6%→Latest 65.6%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Freiburg's 10 matches and 3 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?