FC Koln vs M'gladbach Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
RheinEnergieStadion
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.12
Draw
3.82
Away Win
3.34
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
FC Koln
M'gladbach
Marius Bülter 🟨
13'
24'
🟨 Jan Leszczynski
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson ⚽
26'
39'
⚽ Joe Scally
Said El Mala (Linton Maina) ⚽
67'
81'
🟨 Zento Uno
90+6'
🟨 Shuto Machino
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
19
Total Shots
16
7
Shots on Goal
7
6
Corner Kicks
6
8
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
FC Koln (4-1-2-1-2)
M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
L. Lochoshvili
B. Sosa
E. Skhiri
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
L. Maina
M. Moore
M. Bülter
S. El Mala
M'gladbach (3-4-2-1)
M. Nicolas
D. Hashioka
K. Diks
J. Leszczyński
J. Scally
P. Sander
F. Neuhaus
L. Ullrich
H. Bolin
R. Hack
I. Lidberg
Player Ratings ?
FC Koln
S. El MalaF8.2
Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM7.8
M. SchwäbeG7.6
M'gladbach
J. ScallyM7.5
M. NicolasG6.8
K. DiksD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. FC Koln edge recent form, attack and defence, M'gladbach edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
FC Koln slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Koln stronger
HomeAway
Defence
FC Koln stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
M'gladbach stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
M'gladbach have struggled away from home in their last five outings, recording just a single draw alongside four defeats, while FC Koln have secured two victories and one draw in the same number of home matches. FC Koln have scored in each of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sample. FC Koln face four confirmed absences, whereas M'gladbach also list four confirmed out-counts together with two players currently marked as doubtful. FC Koln rate stronger on attack and defence, with a slight advantage in form, while M'gladbach rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, FC Koln's implied win probability has fallen by 6.0 percentage points, while M'gladbach's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
M'gladbach losing run
75%
FC Koln yellow cards after 75'
1
M'gladbach points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from FC Koln
FC Koln's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a FC Koln win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
FC Koln win
Latest market chance 47.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
48.4% → 47.2%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.0% → 24.9%
+0.9 pts
M'gladbach win
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 27.9%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
FC Koln
Draw
M'gladbach
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FC KolnM'gladbach
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
18th
4
Games Played
4
1.00
Points/Game
0.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.50
2.25
Conceded/Game
4.00
15.2
Shots/Game
15.3
5.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
FC Koln at home (6 matches) vs M'gladbach away (7 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
0.86
1.50
Goals/Game
1.29
1.17
Conceded/Game
2.71
50%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
FC Koln
Home form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
M'gladbach
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
FC Koln Wins
2
Draws
2
M'gladbach Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.6
FC Koln2 – 1M'gladbach
FC Koln3 – 3M'gladbach
M'gladbach3 – 1FC Koln
M'gladbach3 – 3FC Koln
FC Koln3 – 1M'gladbach
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
FC Kolnvs
M'gladbach
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.30
Goals conceded / game
2.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.1%→Latest 63.3%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 64.5%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of FC Koln's 10 matches and 5 of M'gladbach's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?