FC Koln vs Leverkusen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
RheinEnergieStadion
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.92
Draw
4.10
Away Win
1.88
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
FC Koln
Leverkusen
7'
⚽ Aleix García
34'
🟨 Facundo Medina
Tom Krauß 🟨
40'
Mikey Moore 🟨
46'
Linton Maina 🟨
52'
52'
🟨 Afonso Moreira
53'
🟨 Edmond Tapsoba
Joel Schmied 🟨
57'
Borna Sosa 🟨
70'
85'
⚽ Patrik Schick (Ibrahim Maza)
Said El Mala (Malek El Mala) ⚽
90+2'
90+5'
🟨 Aleix García
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 🟨
90+5'
90+6'
🟨 Jonas Hofmann
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
12
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
8
2
Corner Kicks
6
12
Fouls
12
6
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
FC Koln (3-5-2)
M. Schwäbe
J. Schmied
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
T. Krauß
S. Sebulonsen
L. Maina
Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
M. Moore
B. Sosa
M. Bülter
S. El Mala
Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez
E. Fernández
Aleix García
Afonso Moreira
M. Tillman
I. Maza
P. Schick
Player Ratings ?
FC Koln
S. El MalaF7.8
M. SchwäbeG7.5
S. SebulonsenM6.9
Leverkusen
Aleix GarcíaM8.2
P. SchickF8.0
M. FlekkenG7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Leverkusen
Leverkusen rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; FC Koln edge defence, giving Leverkusen a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Defence
FC Koln stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
FC Koln have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Leverkusen have struggled away from home with just one win and one draw in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. Leverkusen rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while FC Koln rate stronger on defence. Leverkusen won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to FC Koln's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, FC Koln's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Leverkusen's implied win probability has fallen by 4.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Leverkusen a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Leverkusen
Leverkusen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Leverkusen win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
FC Koln win
Latest market chance 25.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.2% → 25.1%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
21.7% → 23.5%
+1.8 pts
Leverkusen win
Latest market chance 51.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
56.1% → 51.4%
−4.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
FC Koln
Draw
Leverkusen
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FC KolnLeverkusen
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
6th
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
1.63
1.12
Goals/Game
2.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
15.2
Shots/Game
18.3
5.0
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
FC Koln at home (6 matches) vs Leverkusen away (6 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
1.17
1.50
Goals/Game
1.67
1.17
Conceded/Game
2.50
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
FC Koln
Home form
W
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leverkusen
Away form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
FC Koln Wins
1
Draws
0
Leverkusen Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
FC Koln1 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen2 – 0FC Koln
FC Koln0 – 2Leverkusen
Leverkusen3 – 0FC Koln
Leverkusen1 – 2FC Koln
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
FC Kolnvs
Leverkusen
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.8%→Latest 66.8%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.6%→Latest 66.4%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?